Global warming causes and consequences, what it threatens. What are the consequences of global warming?

According to scientists, by the beginning the average temperature of the Earth's surface may increase by 1.8 to 3.4 °C. Temperatures may drop slightly in some regions (see Fig. 1).

According to experts (IPCC) , The average temperature on Earth has risen by 0.7 °Cfrom the second half,and “most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is due to activities" ThisFirstlyejection,defiant as a result of combustion, and.(see Fig. 2) .

The strongest temperature fluctuations are observed in the Arctic, Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula (see Figure 3). It is the circumpolar regions that are most sensitive to climate change, where water is on the border of melting and freezing. A slight cooling leads to an increase in the area of ​​​​snow and ice, which well reflect solar radiation into space, thereby contributing to a further decrease in temperature. Conversely, warming leads to a reduction in snow and ice cover, better warming of water and intensive melting of glaciers, which leads to an increase in sea levels.

In addition to increasing, rising temperatures will also lead to changes in quantity and distribution. As a result, natural disasters may become more frequent:, and others. Warming is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of such events.

Another possible consequence of rising global temperatures is a decrease in crop yields in Africa, Asia and Latin America and an increase in yields in developed countries (due to lengthening growing seasons).

Climate warming may lead to a shift in the habitats of plant and animal species to the polar zones, which will increase the likelihood of extinction of small species inhabiting coastal zones and islands, whose existence is currently under threat of extinction.

By 2013, the scientific community reports that the process of global warming has stopped, and the reasons for the cessation of rising temperatures are being studied.

The purpose of my work is to investigate global warming and find ways to solve this problem.

Research objectives:

Explore various theories of global warming;

Assess the consequences of this process;

Suggest measures to prevent global warming.

Research methods used in my work:

Empirical

Statistical

Mathematical, etc.

Climate change on Earth.

The climate changes both as a result of natural internal processes and external influences on the environment (see Fig. 4). Over the past 2000 years, several climate cycles of cooling and warming, replacing each other, are clearly visible.

Climatic shifts of our era.

0 - 400 years

. The climate was probably hot, but not dry. Temperatures were approximately similar to modern ones, and north of the Alps they were even higher than modern ones. North Africa and the Middle East had a more humid climate.

400 - 1000 gg

. The average annual temperature was 1-1.5 degrees lower than the current one. In general, the climate has become wetter and winters colder. In Europe, cold temperatures were also associated with high humidity. The tree line in the Alps has dropped by about 200 meters, and glaciers have increased.

1000 - 1300

. The era of relatively warm climate inV- centuries, was characterized by mild winters, relatively warm and even weather.

1300 - 1850

. Period, which took place onduring- . This period is the coldest in the last 2 thousand years.

1850 - 20?? yy

"Global warming". Estimates from climate models say that by the beginning the average temperature of the Earth's surface could increase by between 1.8 and 3.4 °C.

Causes of global warming.

The causes of climate change remain unknown, however, among the main external influences are changes in the Earth's orbit, volcanic emissions and . According to direct climate observations, average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain the subject of debate. One of the most widely discussed reasons is anthropogenic .

1. .

According to some scientiststhe presentGlobal warming is attributed to human activities. It is caused by an anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere, and, as a consequence, an increase in “ ». The effect of its presence resembles the greenhouse effect, when short-wave solar radiation easily penetrates the CO layer 2 , and then, being reflected from the earth’s surface and turning into long-wave radiation, cannot penetrate back through it and remains in the atmosphere. This layer acts like a film in a greenhouse - it creates an additional thermal effect.

The greenhouse effect was discovered in and was first studied inyear. This is the process by which absorption and emission cause heating of the atmosphere and surface.

On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: (responsible for approximately 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), (CO 2 ) (9-26%), (CH 4 ) (4-9%) and (3-7%). Atmospheric CO concentrations 2 and CH 4 increased with the beginning of the industrial revolution by the middle by 31% and 149% respectively. According to separate studies, such concentration levels have been achieved for the first time in the last 650 thousand years. This is the period for which data have been obtained from polar ice samples. Carbon dioxide creates 50% of the greenhouse effect, chlorofluorocarbon accounts for 15-20%, methane - 18%, nitrogen - 6% (Fig. 5).

About half of all greenhouse gases produced by human activities remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the past 20 years resulted from fuel combustion. At the same time, approximately half of the volume of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is associated with terrestrial vegetation and the ocean. Most of the remaining CO 2 emissions are caused primarily by deforestation and a decrease in the amount of vegetation that absorbs carbon dioxide.

2.2 Changes in solar activity.

Scientists have proposed a variety of explanations for changes in the Earth's temperature. All ongoing climate processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in solar activity certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. There are 11-year, 22-year, and 80-90 year (Glaisberg) cycles of solar activity. It is likely that the observed global warming is associated with another increase in solar activity, which may decline again in the future. Solar activity may explain half of temperature changes before 1970. Under the influence of solar radiation, the thickness of mountain glaciers changes. For example, in the Alps there are practically The Pasterze glacier melted (see Fig. 6). Moreover in some areas the glaciers are thinning, while in others the ice sheet is thickening (see Fig. 7). Over the past half century, temperatures in southwest Antarctica have increased by 2.5 °C. From a shelf with an area of ​​3250 km² and a thickness of over 200 meters, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, an area of ​​over 2500 km² broke off. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Before this, the glacier remained stable for 10 thousand years, since the end of the last ice age. The melting of the ice shelf led to the release of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) in (see Fig. 8).

2.3 The influence of the World Ocean.

The world's oceans are a huge reservoir of solar energy. It determines the direction and speed of movement of warm ocean currents, as well as air masses on Earth, which greatly influence the planet’s climate. At present, the nature of heat circulation in the ocean water column has been poorly studied. It is known that the average temperature of the ocean waters is 3.5°C, and the average temperature of the land surface is 15°C, therefore, increased heat exchange between the ocean and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climate changes (Fig. 9). In addition, a large amount of CO 2 is dissolved in ocean waters (about 140 trillion tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere) and a number of other greenhouse gases. As a result of various natural processes, these gases can enter the atmosphere, significantly influencing the Earth's climate.

2 .4 Volcanic activity.

Volcanic activity is also a source of aerosols of sulfuric acid and large amounts of carbon dioxide released during volcanic eruptions into the Earth's atmosphere. Large eruptions are initially accompanied by cooling due to the entry of ash, sulfuric acid and soot particles into the Earth's atmosphere. Subsequently, the CO 2 released during the eruption causes an increase in the average annual temperature on Earth. The subsequent long-term decrease in volcanic activity helps to increase the transparency of the atmosphere and leads to an increase in temperature on the planet. This could significantly affect the Earth's climate.

3.Results global warming research.

When studying global warming at different weather stations around the world, four series of global temperatures were identified, starting with the second half of the 19th century (see Fig. 10). They show two distinct episodes of global warming. One of them falls on the period from 1910 to 1940. During this time, the average temperature on Earth increased by 0.3-0.4°C. Then, for 30 years, the temperature did not increase and may even have decreased slightly. And since 1970, a new episode of warming began, which continues to this day. During this time, the temperature increased by another 0.6-0.8°C. Thus, in general, over the 20th century, the average global temperature of surface air on Earth increased by about one degree. This is quite a lot, since even after leaving the ice age the warming is usually only 4°C.

By studying changes in sea level, scientists have found that average sea level has been rising over the past 100 years at an average rate of about 1.7 mm/year, which is significantly faster than the average rate over the past several thousand years. Since 1993, global sea level began to rise at an accelerated rate - about 3.5 mm / year (see Fig. 11). The main cause of sea level rise today is an increase in the heat content of the ocean, which leads to its expansion. In the future, melting ice is expected to play a larger role in accelerating sea level rise.

The total volume of glaciers on Earth is declining quite sharply. Glaciers have been gradually shrinking throughout the last century. But the rate of decline has increased noticeably in the last decade (see Fig. 12). Only a few glaciers are still growing. The gradual disappearance of glaciers will be a consequence not only of rising sea levels, but also of problems with the supply of fresh water to some areas of Asia and South America.

.

There is a theory, which often used by opponents of the concepts of anthropogenic global warming and the greenhouse effect. They argue that modern warming is a natural exit from the Little Ice Age of the XIV-XIX centuries, which will lead to the restoration of the temperatures of the small climatic optimum of the X-XIII centuries.

Global warming may not happen everywhere. According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donn, there is an oscillatory process in which the ice age is generated by climate warming, and the exit from the ice age is generated by cooling. This is due to the fact that as the polar ice caps thaw, the amount of precipitation in the polar latitudes increases. Subsequently, there is a decrease in temperature in the inland regions of the northern hemisphere with the subsequent formation of glaciers. When the polar ice caps freeze, glaciers in the deep regions of the continents, not receiving enough recharge in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.

According to one hypothesis, global warming will lead to a stop or serious weakening. This will cause a significant drop in average temperatures in (while temperatures in other regions will rise, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent by transporting warm water from the tropics.

5. Consequences of global warming.

Currently, the climate warming factor is considered on a par with other known health risk factors - smoking, alcohol, excess nutrition, low physical activity and others.

5.1 Spread of infections.

As a result of climate warming, an increase in precipitation, an expansion of wetlands and an increase in the number of flooded settlements are expected. The area of ​​water bodies colonized by mosquito larvae is constantly increasing, including 70% of water bodies are infected with malaria mosquito larvae. According to WHO experts, an increase in temperature of 2–3 °C leads to an increase in the number of people who can get malaria by about 3–5%. Mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile fever (WNV), Dengue fever, and yellow fever may occur. An increase in the number of days with high temperatures leads to the activation of ticks and an increase in the incidence of infections transmitted by them.

5.2. Thawing permafrost.

A gas, methane, is conserved in the thickness of frozen rocks. It causes an incomparably greater greenhouse effect than CO2. If methane is released into the atmosphere as permafrost melts, climate change will be irreversible. The planet will become suitable only for cockroaches and bacteria. In addition, dozens of cities built on permafrost will simply drown. The percentage of deformed buildings in the north is already very high and is growing all the time. Melting permafrost will make it impossible to extract oil, gas, nickel, diamonds and copper. With global warming, new outbreaks of viruses will arise as temperatures rise; it becomes available to bacteria and fungi, which decompose methane.

5.3 Anomalous natural phenomena.

Scientists believe that one of the consequences of climate change is an increase in the number of abnormal weather events such as floods, storms, typhoons, and hurricanes. R An increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions will lead to an increase in fire danger in forests and a noticeable expansion of drought areas and desert lands. In other regions of the Earth, we can expect stronger winds and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones, an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation, due to which floods will become more frequent, which will lead to waterlogging of the soil, which is dangerous for agriculture.

5.4 Rising sea levels.

The number of glaciers in the northern seas will decrease (for example, in Greenland), which will lead to a rise in the level of the World Ocean. Then coastal areas, the level of which is below sea level, will be under water. For example, the Netherlands, which, under the pressure of the sea, maintains its territory only with the help of dams; Japan, which has many production facilities in such areas; Many islands in the tropics may be flooded by the ocean.

5.5 Economic consequences.

The costs of climate change are rising with temperatures. Severe storms and floods cause billions of dollars in losses. Extreme weather conditions create extreme financial challenges. For example, after a record-breaking hurricane in 2005, Louisiana experienced a 15 percent drop in revenue a month after the storm, and property damage was estimated at $135 billion. Consumers regularly face rising food and energy prices, along with rising health care and real estate costs. As drylands expand, food production is threatened and some populations are at risk of going hungry. Today, India, Pakistan and sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from food shortages, and experts predict even greater declines in rainfall in the coming decades. Thus, according to estimates, a very sad picture emerges. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that by 2020, 75-200 million Africans could experience water shortages and the continent's agricultural output could decline by 50 percent.

5.6 Loss of biodiversity and destruction of ecosystems.

By 2050, humanity risks losing as much as 30 percent of animal and plant species if average temperatures rise by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius. Such extinction will occur due to habitat loss through desertification, deforestation and ocean warming, as well as a failure to adapt to ongoing climate change. Wildlife researchers have noted that some more resilient species have migrated to the poles to "maintain" the habitat they need. When plants and animals disappear due to climate change, human food, fuel and income will also disappear. Scientists are already seeing the bleaching and death of coral reefs due to warming ocean waters, as well as the migration of the most vulnerable plant and animal species to other areas due to rising air and water temperatures, as well as melting glaciers. Changing climate conditions and a sharp increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are a serious test for our ecosystems.

6. Climate change areas.

The Intergovernmental Commission has identified a number of areas most vulnerable to expected climate change:

In the region, mega-delta of Asia, small islands there will be increased droughts and increased desertification;

In Europe, rising temperatures will lead to reduced water resources and hydroelectricity generation, reduced agricultural output, deteriorating tourism conditions, reduced snow cover and retreat of mountain glaciers, increased summer precipitation and an increased risk of heavy and catastrophic river events;

In Central and Eastern Europe there will be an increase in the frequency of forest fires, fires on peatlands, and a decrease in forest productivity; increasing soil instability in Northern Europe.

In the Arctic - a catastrophic decrease in the area of ​​glaciation, a reduction in the area of ​​sea ice, and strengthening of the coast;

In southwest Antarctica, the temperature increased by 2.5 °C. Antarctic ice mass is decreasing at an accelerating pace;

In Western Siberia, since the beginning of the 1970s, the temperature of permafrost soils has increased by 1.0 °C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5 °C, in the northern regions - the Arkhangelsk region, the Komi Republic - it has not warmed at all;

In the north, since the mid-1980s, the temperature of the upper layer of permafrost has increased by 3 ° C, and the fertile California has cooled somewhat;

In the southern regions, in particular in Ukraine, it also became somewhat colder.

7. Measures to prevent global warming.

To stop the growth CO2 , it is necessary to replace traditional types of energy based on the combustion of carbon raw materials with non-traditional ones. It is necessary to increase the production of solar panels, wind turbines, the construction of tidal power plants (TPP), geothermal and hydroelectric power plants (HPP).

The problem of global warming must be solved at the international level, in accordance with a single international program drawn up with the participation of the governments of all countries and the world community, under unified international leadership. Today, the main global agreement to combat global warming is (agreed on, entered into force on). The protocol includes more than 160 countries and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.:

The European Union must reduce emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by 8%.

USA - by 7%.

Japan - by 6%.

The protocol provides for a system of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence lies in the fact that each country receives permission to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. Thus, it is expected that greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 5% over the next 15 years.

Since the implementation of this program will be designed for many years, it is necessary to outline the stages of its implementation, their timing, and provide for a control and reporting system.

Russian scientists are also developing weapons against global warming. This is an aerosol of sulfur compounds, which is supposed to be sprayed in the lower layers of the atmosphere. The method being developed by Russian scientists involves spraying with the help of aircraft in the lower layers of the stratosphere (at an altitude of 10-14 kilometers from the ground) a thin layer of aerosol (0.25-0.5 microns) of various sulfur compounds. Drops of sulfur will reflect solar radiation.

According to scientists' calculations, if one million tons of aerosol are sprayed over the Earth, this will reduce solar radiation by 0.5-1 percent and air temperature by 1-1.5 degrees Celsius.

The amount of aerosol spray will need to be constantly maintained as the sulfur compounds will fall to the ground over time.

Conclusion.

When researching global warming, I came to the conclusion that over the past 150 years there has been a change in the thermal regime by about 1-1.5 degrees. It has its own regional and temporal scales.

Many scientists believe that the main reason that possibly leads to these processes is the increase in CO 2 (carbon dioxide) in . It is called a “greenhouse gas.” An increase in the content of gases such as freon and a number of halogen gases is also considered a consequence of human economic activity and the cause of ozone holes.

Research has shown that to avoid a global catastrophe, it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere.

I believe that the most important ways to solve this problem are: the introduction of environmentally friendly, low- and waste-free technologies, the construction of treatment facilities, the rational location of production and the use of natural resources.

I suggest using biogas technologies.

Biogas is a product of the decomposition of organic substances of various origins (manure, food industry waste, other biological waste).

Biogas consists of 50-70% methane (CH 4) and 30-50% carbon dioxide (CO 2). It can be used as fuel to generate heat and electricity. Biogas can be used in boilers (to produce heat), in gas turbines or in reciprocating engines. They usually operate in cogeneration mode to produce electricity and heat (see Fig. 13).

Raw materials for biogas plants are available in sufficient quantities at wastewater treatment plants, garbage dumps, pig farms, poultry farms, and cowsheds. It is agricultural enterprises that can be considered the main consumer of biogas technologies. A ton of manure produces 30-50 m3 of biogas with a methane content of 60%. In fact, one cow is capable of producing 2.5 cubic meters of gas per day. About 2 kW of electricity can be generated from one cubic meter of biogas. Plus, organic fertilizer is produced that can be used in agriculture.

Operating principle of the installation:

From livestock buildings 1 using the self-floating method, manure is transferred to a receiving container 2 , where raw materials are prepared for loading into reactors for processing. It is then fed to the biogas plant 3 , where biogas is released and supplied to the gas distribution column 5 . It separates carbon dioxide and methane. The waste is nitrogen fertilizers, they are transported to the fields 10. CO 2 goes to the production of biovitamin concentrate, and CH4 goes to the gas generator 9 where the electricity that powers the pump is generated 11 supplying water for irrigation of fields and greenhouses 13 .

Biogas accounts for 3-4% of the energy balance of European countries. In Finland, Sweden and Austria, thanks to government incentives for bioenergy, its share reaches 15-20%. There are 12 million small “family” biogas plants in China, supplying gas mainly to kitchen stoves. This technology is widespread in India and Africa.In Russia, installations for producing biogas are rarely used.

Bibliography.

Magazine "Chemistry and Life" No. 4, 2007

Kriskunov E.A. Ecology (textbook), M. 1995.

Pravda.ru

Revich B.A. “Russia in the world around us: 2004”

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Http://www.priroda.su/item/389

Http://www.climatechange.ru/node/119

http://energyland.info

Into the atmosphere as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels from 1800 to 2007 in billions of tons.

Fig.3 Between 1979 (left) and 2003 (right), the area covered by Arctic ice decreased markedly.

Fig.4 Climatic reconstructions for the period 1000-2000. n. e., marked by the Little Ice Age

Rice. 5. The share of anthropogenic gases in the atmosphere due to the greenhouse effect.

Fig.6 Photographs of the melting Pasterze glacier in Austria in 1875 (left) and 2004 (right).

Fig.7 Map of changes in the thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red colors, thickening in blue.

Fig.8. Ice shelf melting.

Fig.9 Graph of changes in ocean heat content for a 700-meter layer of water since 1955. Seasonal changes (red dots), annual average (black line)

Fig. 10. Study of global warming at different weather stations.

Rice. 11 Graph of changes in average annual measurements of global sea level. Red: sea level since 1870; blue: based on tidal sensor data, black: based on satellite observations. The inset shows the average global sea level rise since 1993, a period during which sea level rise has accelerated.

Rice. 12 Graph of volumetric decline (in cubic miles) of glaciers around the world.

Rice. 13 Diagram of a biogas plant.

Good day, dear readers! Today we will talk about global problems of humanity. I would like to discuss a topic that everyone is discussing - global warming. Find out the reasons and how the Earth suffers from this and how to cope with it...

Global warming is believed to be directly related to human activities. Although we practically do not feel a slight increase in temperature, this can have the most detrimental consequences for the entire biosphere. Water shortages and droughts, severe floods, hurricanes and fires in different regions of the planet are the result of global warming. In addition, under its influence, the flora and fauna change noticeably

Some scientists believe that these are stages of the evolutionary development of our planet. After all, the Earth has already experienced several, so we may well live in a warm interglacial. Strong warming occurred during the Pliocene era (5.3-1.6 million years ago). Then the sea level was 30-35 meters higher than today. It is assumed that the immediate cause of the ice age was a change in the angle of inclination of the earth's axis to the plane of the orbit in which it revolves around the sun. Among other factors of global warming are: an increase in solar activity and significant dustiness of the atmosphere due to volcanic activity of industrial emissions.

It was found that until 1990, the temperature increased by 0.5°C every 100 years, while recently it has increased by 0.3°C every 10 years. If humanity continues to pollute the atmosphere at the same rate, then already in the current century the climate on earth will warm by 1-5°C.

Main reasons.

The most common belief is that a mixture of natural and industrial gases (including nitrous oxide, water vapor, sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and methane) traps thermal energy in the Earth, resulting in warming. These gases have a common name - greenhouse gases, and the overall effect they have is called the greenhouse effect (sometimes the greenhouse effect).

A significant portion of solar energy is absorbed by the earth, and the unused portion normally goes into outer space. However, greenhouse gases interfere with this process, so the surface of our planet begins to warm up. Global warming is the result of the described mechanism.

Mountain systems, snow and ice sheets, and the planet's vegetation play a key role in regulating air flow and temperature. Cryosphere - areas covered with snow and ice - reflects heat from the entire surface into space. The ratio of the radiation flux scattered by a surface to the flux incident on it is called albedo by scientists. With much of the rainforest cleared, the green belt they form along the equator is gradually becoming treeless regions, which some say increases albedo and contributes to global warming.

To date, there is no consensus among scientists regarding the source and changes in the composition of the mixture of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide - a natural component of the earth's atmosphere, which is continuously absorbed and released by plants in the process of their life. Its concentration in the air is steadily increasing: from 0.0256 percent by volume at the beginning of the 19th century to 0.0340 today.

Carbon dioxide is released in significant quantities during the combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal, wood). The ever-growing population of the globe, which uses these types of fuel as the main source of energy resources, increases carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere year after year. In addition, large-scale logging and burning of tropical forests turns green plants into carbon dioxide. All of these factors lead to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Recently, scientists have assigned a significant role to phytoplankton in the carbon dioxide cycle, since these tiny plants living in the world's oceans process significant volumes of carbon dioxide. The massive death of phytoplankton leads to the accumulation of this gas in natural layers.

Nitrous oxide is present in car exhaust, like other harmful gases produced by the combustion of fossil fuels.

Methane in the process of their life is produced by bacteria belonging to the genus Methanecoccbs, which are able to obtain energy by reducing carbon dioxide to methane.

They live in boggy soils and lake mud, in sewage sludge and in the intestines of sheep and cattle. In the polar regions, methane is retained in the frozen layer. With global warming and the gradual thawing of the frozen horizon, methane begins to be released into the atmosphere, having a significant impact on it. Scientists say that over the past 100 years the level of this gas in the atmosphere has doubled.

Chlorofluorocarbons - Man-made chemicals used in refrigeration units and aerosol sprays. After use, they enter the atmosphere and accumulate in the stratosphere. Here they interact with ozone, a natural atmospheric component. The ozone layer, which normally protects our planet from harmful ultraviolet radiation, is destroyed, forming so-called ozone holes. As a result, increased levels of ultraviolet radiation lead to more intense heating of the Earth's surface and atmosphere.

Impact on ecosystems.

Global warming may lead to intensive melting of glaciers; Already today, scientists have discovered quite large cracks in the ice fields of the Western Atlantic. Large-scale melting of ice will lead to rising sea levels and flooding of vast areas of coastal regions. According to available data, sea levels are rising at a rate of 6 cm per 10 years. If the rate of global warming continues, cities such as New Orleans (USA), Rotterdam (Netherlands), Venice (Italy), London (England) and others will be completely flooded.

And since water (like all physical bodies) expands when heated, it is assumed that this will lead to an even more significant increase in the level of the World Ocean.

As the climate warms, terrestrial ecosystems will become drier and, consequently, the risk of fires will increase. Although fauna and flora are gradually adapting to changing conditions, the number of such arid habitats is constantly increasing.

Humans, who alter natural ecosystems through urbanization, agricultural and industrial activities, and ever-increasing consumption of fossil fuels and other forms of energy, are largely responsible for global warming.

Due to lack of water and frequent droughts, crop yields in many previously very fertile regions are falling. During the period of climate change, cyclonic activity increases noticeably, which is accompanied by more frequent natural disasters: hurricanes, destructive storms, tsunamis, storms, and so on.

Flooding is another consequence of global warming, which is associated with the melting of mountain glaciers and ice-bound lakes. Mudflows in mountainous regions (due to the lack of vegetation cover that strengthens the soil horizon) and flooding of large areas of low-lying areas are quite common these days, especially in India.

This affects about 300 million people who live in mountainous areas, occupying about 40% of the land surface.

What's happening to wildlife?

Subtle temperature fluctuations (either cold or warm) have a significant impact on populations of living things. For example, the fauna and flora of Britain, which is located off the northwestern coast of Europe, is very sensitive to climate changes on the mainland: birds, insects and plants are expanding their ranges to the north, and the natural distribution regions of species that have adapted to harsh climatic conditions are, on the contrary, shrinking.

Desertification of fertile agricultural lands due to soil drainage, rising temperatures and erosion is also a danger. An example is the strip of deserts and semi-desert savannas in the south of the Sahara, which is constantly expanding due to uncontrolled grazing and timber harvesting.

Reasons for nesting.

The rise in temperature has also had an impact on the feathered inhabitants of the planet: many birds begin to build nests and breed offspring earlier than usual. As a result of long-term observations (1962-1990) of 30,000 representatives of the bird kingdom, British scientists found that as a result of global warming, the mating season begins unusually early in 33 of 88 species. This trend has been evident since the mid-1970s.

As a result, migratory birds have more time to prepare for the long and very difficult journey to the mainland, to their usual wintering areas, and species that live all year round in the British Isles have the opportunity to better prepare for the cold.

Disagreements.

Such a large scale of the emerging and developing problem necessitated its solution at the international level. The Second United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, which took place in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro and at which the Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed, served as an impetus for the creation of interstate cooperation mechanisms that provide the opportunity to reduce the amount of harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

In December 1997, a new international agreement was approved in the Japanese city of Kyoto, which is an addition to the Framework Convention on Climate Change and called the Kyoto Protocol. This agreement provides for a whole range of measures to prevent negative climate change.

All states that have acceded to the Kyoto Protocol are required to formulate and implement a set of measures aimed at reducing the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere.

For today I have all the information for you about global warming. Come visit more often, new articles are coming very soon. And don’t forget to subscribe to blog updates so you don’t miss them.

What does warming threaten humanity with and what to do to prevent a catastrophe

In recent years, the climate on Earth has changed noticeably: some countries suffer from abnormal heat, others from winters that are too harsh and snowy, unusual for these places.

Environmentalists talk about global climate change, including an increase in average annual temperatures that causes glaciers to melt and rising sea levels. In addition to warming, there is also an imbalance in all natural systems, which leads to changes in precipitation patterns, temperature anomalies and an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.

According to scientists, over ten months of 2015, the average temperature of the planet was 1.02 °C higher than that recorded in the 19th century (when monitoring of changes in global temperature began). The one-degree threshold was exceeded for the first time in modern history. Scientists agree that it is human activity - the burning of oil, gas and coal - that leads to the greenhouse effect, which causes an increase in average temperatures. Experts note that the period between 2000 and 2010 saw the strongest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the last 30 years. According to the World Meteorological Organization, their concentration in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2014.

What threatens climate warming?

If states do not begin to seriously address the problem of environmental protection, by 2100 the temperature on the planet may rise by 3.7-4.8 °C. Climatologists warn: irreversible consequences for the environment will occur even with warming of more than 2 °C.

To draw maximum attention to climate problems, the UN attracted not only politicians and scientists, but also celebrities to the discussion. Hollywood actor Robert Redford warned in a statement that the international community's "time for half-measures and denial of climate change is over."

What consequences await the planet if we fail to stop the rise in temperature?

Natural disasters

Climate zones will shift, weather changes will become more dramatic (severe frosts followed by sudden thaws in winter, an increase in the number of abnormally hot days in summer). The frequency and severity of abnormal events such as droughts and floods will increase.

The connection between climate change and the occurrence of natural disasters has been proven by American scientists who discovered traces of warming when studying tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean, unusually high summer temperatures in Europe, China, South Korea and Argentina, as well as forest fires in the US state of California. Climate change has also catalyzed droughts in Africa and the Middle East, snowstorms in Nepal and torrential downpours causing flooding in Canada and New Zealand.

Uninhabitable areas

Some countries may become uninhabitable by 2100 due to rising humidity and high average temperatures. According to a study by American scientists, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and other countries in the Middle East are at risk.

According to climatologists, at the current rate of growth in greenhouse gas emissions, by 2070 the average air temperature in the Persian Gulf countries could reach 74-77 °C. This will make the areas uninhabitable for people. An exception may be large cities with a developed air conditioning system. But even in them, people will be able to leave the house only at night.

A blow to biodiversity

According to some scientists, we are in the middle of the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. And this time this process is caused by human actions. If climate warming is not stopped, many ecosystems and the species of living beings that comprise them will become less diverse and less saturated.

There are predictions that up to 30-40% of plant and animal species will disappear because their habitats will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.

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Lack of drinking water, famine and epidemics

UN experts warn that warming will negatively impact crop yields, especially in underdeveloped countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, leading to food shortages. According to scientists, by 2080 the number of people facing hunger could increase by 600 million people.

Another important consequence of climate change may be a shortage of drinking water. In regions with arid climates (Central Asia, the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.), the situation will become even worse due to reduced precipitation.

Hunger, lack of water, and the migration of insects can lead to an increase in epidemics and the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria and fever in the northern regions.

Climate change may not only affect human health, but also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water and food resources.

Rising sea levels

One of the most tangible consequences of climate warming will likely be the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. Millions of people on the coast will die from frequent flooding or be forced to relocate, UN analysts predict.

According to the expert community, sea level rise in the 21st century will be up to 1 m (in the 20th century - 0.1-0.2 m). In this case, lowlands, coastal areas and small islands will be most vulnerable.

The first to fall into the risk zone are the Netherlands, Bangladesh and small island states such as the Bahamas and Maldives.

Significant areas may be flooded in countries such as Russia, the USA, the UK, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Iraq, Thailand and Vietnam. Serious damage threatens China, where about 140 million people could lose their homes, and Japan, where the homes of more than 30 million people, a quarter of the country's population, could be flooded.

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Estimated consequences for the Russian Federation

The climate in Russia is also changing noticeably. Sudden changes in weather, abnormally high and abnormally low temperatures are more common.

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, in our country from 1990 to 2010, the number of natural disasters, such as floods, floods, mudflows and hurricanes, increased almost fourfold and continues to increase by approximately 6-7% per year. Environmentalists predict that their number could double over the next ten years.

According to the World Bank, the annual damage from the impact of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia amounts to 30-60 billion rubles.

According to Roshydromet calculations, in Russia the average annual temperature is growing 2.5 times faster than throughout the world. The warming is most active in the northern regions of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Emergency Situations adds. Thus, in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century the temperature may rise by 7 °C. By the middle of the 21st century, the average winter temperature throughout Russia may increase by 2-5 °C. The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will be 1-3 °C by mid-century, rescuers believe.

The head of Roshydromet, Alexandra Frolova, believes that climate warming for Russia brings not only risks, but also benefits.

Threats associated with warming:

An increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation, floods, and cases of soil waterlogging dangerous for agriculture in others;

Increased fire danger in forests and peatlands;

Disruption of the usual way of life of indigenous northern peoples;

Degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications;

Disturbance of ecological balance, displacement of some biological species by others;

Increase in electricity costs for air conditioning in the summer season for a large area of ​​the country.

Positive changes:

Warming in the Arctic will increase the duration of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and facilitate the development of oil and gas fields on the shelf;

The heating season will be shortened and, accordingly, energy consumption will be reduced;

The northern border of agriculture will shift to the north, due to which the area of ​​agricultural land will increase, especially in Western Siberia and the Urals.

Extinguishing peat bogs in the Tver region, 2014

© TASS/Sergey Bobylev

What to do

According to scientists, humanity is unlikely to be able to completely prevent climate change. However, the international community is able to curb rising temperatures to avoid irreversible environmental consequences. To do this, it is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions, develop alternative energy and develop a strategy to reduce risks due to warming.

Adaptation of social life to new conditions

Plans to minimize damage from climate change must cover all areas of human activity, including healthcare, agriculture and infrastructure.

In Russia, for example, it is necessary to change storm drains, prepare for stormy winds (recalculate the strength of structures), change the fire extinguishing system - droughts increase the fire danger, explains Alexey Kokorin. In Kyrgyzstan, the snow limit in the Tien Shan has risen, this has caused problems with livestock grazing - measures must be taken to preserve pastures.

However, different states have different opportunities to mitigate the impact of climate change. For example, Holland and Bangladesh are experiencing the same problems: there are more storms, the sea level has risen. But Holland already has an action plan; they know how they will strengthen the dams and where they will get the funds. But in Bangladesh there is none of this, and the coastline is 10 times larger and the population is 10 times larger, and 100 million people live in dangerous territories who will need to be resettled somewhere.

Thus, Kokorin adds, most of the measures necessary for adaptation are quite simple and understandable, but their implementation requires funds and effective planning.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Climatologists estimate that to keep temperature increases to 2°C, countries will need to halve global emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2050, and to zero by the end of the 21st century.

According to PwC analysts, since 2000, Russia has on average reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 3.6% per year, the UK by 3.3%, France by 2.7%, and the USA by 2.3%. The average annual reduction in carbon emissions over the past 15 years has been 1.3%.

However, these efforts are not enough. To prevent irreversible climate change, annual reductions in carbon dioxide emissions must be at least 6.3% until 2100.

This means, on the one hand, it is necessary to introduce energy-saving technologies, and on the other hand, to switch to alternative energy sources.

Sun or atom

Several energy sources are safe for the atmosphere in terms of emissions: hydropower, nuclear power plants and new renewable sources - sun, wind, tides. Hydropower has physically observable limits (there are not many rivers on Earth), wind and tides can only be used locally, so the main sources of energy of the future are the Sun and atom, says Professor Rafael Harutyunyan, Deputy Director of the Institute for the Safe Development of Nuclear Energy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the expert, based on the current level of technology development, nuclear energy looks more solid: alternative renewable energy sources now account for 2% of global consumption, and nuclear power already provides 16% of the world’s electricity (in developed countries - more than 70%, in the North western Russia - 40%).

The advantage of nuclear energy is that it is a large-scale energy sector, these are power plants for large industrial agglomerations and large cities.

The trump card of solar energy is the almost universal availability and dynamic development of technology. In addition, solar energy is being improved and can become much more economical, unlike nuclear energy, which cannot be significantly reduced in cost, Alexey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy program at WWF Russia, argues with nuclear supporters.

Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation and his representative on climate issues, Alexander Bedritsky, believes that it is impossible to completely solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy sources. The expert cited solar and wind energy as an example. According to him, it is impossible to provide industry with energy using solar panels in northern countries, such as Russia, where there is sun for half a year in the north, but not for half a year.

The same, according to Bedritsky, applies to wind energy. It is suitable for individual consumption, but not for industrial production. Wind turbines are used in many regions, mainly in coastal areas, but they do not completely cover the territory.

In Russia, adds the adviser to the Russian President on climate change, approximately a third of the energy sector is based not on mineral raw materials, but on nuclear and hydropower.

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Who will pay

Negotiations on climate change are complicated by differences between rich and poor countries.

The transition to environmentally friendly energy sources requires significant costs. Developed countries insist that all negotiators contribute to these efforts. In turn, developing countries believe that responsibility for climate change lies with industrial powers, which have long been polluting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases.

According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, developed countries have a special responsibility in the fight against climate change and the consequences of this phenomenon. In 2010, the Green Climate Fund was created to help developing countries under the auspices of the UN. Funds are allocated mostly by developed countries. It is planned that by 2020 the volume of the fund should be $100 billion, but so far it contains just over $10 billion.

Now developed countries are experiencing a serious burden on state budgets, so they prefer that climate finance go through private investment or loans and borrowings, explains Alexey Kokorin. Vulnerable countries are not ready to take loans.

Despite the fact that Russia has no obligation to contribute funds to the Green Climate Fund, Moscow is ready to support it on a voluntary basis, adds Alexander Bedritsky. First of all, this concerns the CIS countries.

In November 2015, the fund approved $168 million for the first eight projects to help developing countries adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. We are talking about three projects in Africa, three in the Asia-Pacific region and two in Latin America.

Burning garbage in India

© AP Photo/Anupam Nath

Paris Conference and new agreement

On December 12, 2015, at the UN World Climate Conference in Paris, 195 delegations from around the world approved a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020.

April 22, 2016 1 . On behalf of Russia, the document was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin.

The agreement will come into force once it is ratified by 55 countries that account for at least 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Main provisions of the document

The main goal of the new agreement, which was confirmed by all participating countries, is to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and thereby keep the increase in average temperature on the planet within 1.5-2 °C.

Currently, the efforts of the world community are not enough to curb global warming, the document notes. Thus, the level of total emissions risks reaching 55 gigatons in 2030, while, according to UN experts, this maximum mark should be no more than 40 gigatons. “In this regard, countries participating in the Paris Agreement need to take more intensive measures,” the document emphasizes.

The agreement has a framework nature; its participants have yet to determine the volume of greenhouse gas emissions, measures to prevent climate change, as well as the rules for implementing this document. But the key provisions have already been agreed upon.

The parties to the agreement undertake:

Adopt national plans to reduce emissions, technological upgrading and adaptation to climate change; these state obligations should be reviewed and strengthened every five years;

Systematically reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; To achieve this, by 2020 it is necessary to develop national strategies for the transition to a carbon-free economy;

Provide $100 billion annually to the Green Climate Fund to help underdeveloped and most vulnerable countries. After 2025, this amount should be revised upward “taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries”;

Establish international exchange of “green” technologies in the field of energy efficiency, industry, construction, agriculture, etc.

US President Barack Obama

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The agreement aims to reduce the carbon pollution that threatens our planet, as well as create new jobs and grow the economy through investment in low-carbon technologies. This could help delay or avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.

US President Barack Obama

At the end of the summit, 189 states had submitted preliminary plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The five countries with the largest emissions reported the following reductions relative to 1990:

European Union - 40%;

Russia - 30%;

USA - 12-14%;

China - 6-18%;

Japan - 13%.

Officially, countries must voice their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the day the document is signed. The most important condition is that they must be no lower than the already stated goals in Paris.

It is proposed to form a special working group to monitor the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the commitments undertaken by countries. It is planned that it will begin work in 2016.

Disagreements and ways to resolve them

"Should" was replaced with "should"

At the stage of discussion of the treaty, Russia advocated that the agreement be legally binding for all countries. The US opposed this. According to an unnamed diplomat quoted by the Associated Press, the American delegation insisted that the word “should” be replaced with “should” in the section on emissions reduction targets in the final document.

This structure of the treaty makes it possible to avoid ratification of the document in the US Congress, which is extremely skeptical of Obama’s environmental policies.

No specific obligations

Another proposal of the Russian Federation was the division of responsibility for emissions among all countries. However, developing countries opposed this. In their opinion, most of the burden should fall on developed countries, which have long been the main sources of emissions. Meanwhile, now the top five “polluters” of the planet, along with the USA and the EU, include China and India, which are considered developing countries. Russia is in fifth place in terms of CO2 emissions.

This is an increase in the average temperature on Earth, which has been recorded since the end of the 19th century. Over land and ocean since the beginning of the 20th century, it has risen by an average of 0.8 degrees.

Scientists believe that by the end of the 21st century the temperature may rise by an average of 2 degrees (negative forecast - by 4 degrees).

But the increase is quite small, does it really affect anything?

All the climate changes that we experience are the consequences of global warming. This is what has happened on Earth over the past century.

• There are more hot days and fewer cold days on all continents.
• Global sea levels have risen by 14 centimeters. The area of ​​glaciers is shrinking, they are melting, the water is being desalinated, and the movement of ocean currents is changing.
• As temperatures rose, the atmosphere began to hold more moisture. This has led to more frequent and powerful storms, especially in North America and Europe.
• In some regions of the world (Mediterranean, West Africa) there are more droughts, in others (the midwestern United States, northwestern Australia), on the contrary, there are fewer of them.

What caused global warming?

Additional release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor, ozone. They absorb long waves of infrared radiation without releasing them into space. Because of this, a greenhouse effect is formed on Earth.

Global warming has provoked rapid industrial development. The more emissions from enterprises, the more active deforestation is (and they absorb carbon dioxide), the more greenhouse gases accumulate. And the more the Earth warms up.

What could all this lead to?

Scientists predict that further global warming can intensify processes that are destructive to people, trigger droughts, floods, and the rapid spread of dangerous diseases.

• Due to rising sea levels, many coastal communities will be flooded.
• The consequences of storms will become more global.
• Rainy seasons will become longer, leading to more flooding.
• The duration of dry periods will also increase, which threatens severe droughts.
• Tropical cyclones will become stronger: wind speeds will be higher and precipitation will be heavier.
• The combination of elevated temperatures and drought will make it difficult to grow some crops.
• Many species of animals will migrate to maintain their familiar habitats. Some of them may disappear completely. For example, ocean acidification, which absorbs carbon dioxide (emitted when fossil fuels are burned), kills oysters and coral reefs, and worsens the conditions for predators.

Are hurricanes Harvey and Irma also caused by global warming?

According to one version, warming in the Arctic is to blame for the formation of destructive hurricanes. It created an atmospheric “blockade” - it slowed down the circulation of jet streams in the atmosphere. Because of this, powerful “sedentary” storms formed, absorbing huge amounts of moisture. But there is no sufficient evidence for this theory yet.

Many climatologists rely on the Clapeyron-Clausius equation, according to which the atmosphere with a higher temperature contains more moisture, and therefore creates conditions for the formation of more powerful storms. The water temperature in the ocean where Harvey formed is about 1 degree above average.

Hurricane Irma formed in approximately the same way. The process began in the warm waters off the coast of West Africa. In 30 hours, the elements intensified to the third category (and then to the highest, fifth). Meteorologists recorded such a rate of formation for the first time in two decades.

Is it really possible that what was described in the film “The Day After Tomorrow” awaits us?

Scientists believe that such hurricanes may become the norm. True, climatologists have not yet predicted instant global cooling, as in the film.

Extreme weather events have already taken first place in the top five global risks for 2017, announced at the World Economic Forum. 90% of the largest economic losses in the world today come from floods, hurricanes, floods, heavy rains, hail, and droughts.

Okay, but given global warming, why was this summer in Russia so cold?

It does not interfere. Scientists have developed a model that explains this.

Global warming has led to increased temperatures in the Arctic Ocean region. The ice began to actively melt, the circulation of air flows changed, and with them the seasonal patterns of atmospheric pressure distribution changed.

Previously, the weather in Europe was driven by the Arctic Oscillation with the seasonal Azores High (an area of ​​high pressure) and Icelandic Low. Between these two areas a westerly wind formed, which brought warm air from the Atlantic.

But due to rising temperatures, the difference in pressure between the Azores high and the Icelandic low has narrowed. Air masses increasingly began to move not from west to east, but along meridians. Arctic air can penetrate deep into the south and bring cold temperatures.

Should residents of Russia pack an emergency bag in case of something like Harvey?

If you wish, . He who is forewarned is forearmed. This summer, hurricanes have been recorded in many Russian cities, the likes of which have not been seen in the last 100 years.

According to Roshydromet, in 1990–2000, 150–200 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena that caused damage were recorded in our country. Today their number exceeds 400, and the consequences are becoming more devastating.

Global warming is not only manifested in climate change. For several years, scientists from the Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics named after A. A. Trofimuk have been warning about the danger for cities and towns in northern Russia.

Huge craters have formed here, from which explosive methane can be released.

Previously, these craters were heaving mounds: an underground “storage” of ice. But due to global warming they melted. The voids were filled with gas hydrates, the release of which was like an explosion.

A further increase in temperature may worsen the process. It poses a particular danger to Yamal and the cities located close to it: Nadym, Salekhard, Novy Urengoy.

Can global warming be stopped?

Yes, if you completely rebuild the energy system. Today, about 87% of the world's energy comes from fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas).

To reduce emissions, you need to use low-carbon energy sources: wind, sun, geothermal processes (occurring in the bowels of the earth).

Another way is to develop carbon capture, where carbon dioxide is captured from emissions from power plants, oil refineries and other industries and injected underground.

What prevents you from doing this?

There are a number of reasons for this: political (defending the interests of certain companies), technological (alternative energy is considered too expensive) and others.

The most active “producers” of greenhouse gases are China, the USA, EU countries, India, and Russia.

If emissions can be reduced significantly, there is a chance to stop global warming at 1 degree.

But if there are no changes, the average temperature could rise by 4 degrees or more. And in this case, the consequences will be irreversible and disastrous for humanity.

Global warming was once a fancy term used by scientists who were increasingly concerned about the effects of pollution on long-term weather patterns. Today, the idea of ​​global warming on earth is well known, but not entirely understood.
It's not unusual for someone to complain about a hot day and remark, "It's global warming."

Well, is that so? In this article we will learn what global warming is, what causes it, what the current and possible future consequences are. Although there is a scientific consensus on global warming, some are not sure it is something we need to worry about.

We'll look at some of the proposed changes being made by scientists related to curbing global warming and the criticisms and concerns surrounding it.

Global warming is a significant increase in the temperature of the Earth over a relatively short period of time as a result of human activities.

In particular, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius over a period of one hundred to two hundred years will be considered as global warming of the Earth. Over the course of one century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant.

To understand what this means, let's start by looking at the difference between weather and climate.

What is weather and climate

The weather is local and short-term. If snow falls in the city where you live next Tuesday, it's the weather.

Climate is long-term and does not apply to one small location. An area's climate is the average weather conditions in a region over a long period of time.

If the part you live in has cold winters with a lot of snow, that's the climate for the region you live in. We know, for example, that in some areas the winters were cold and snowy, so we know what to expect.

It's important to understand that when we talk about long-term climate, we really mean long-term. Even a few hundred years is pretty short term when it comes to climate. In fact, sometimes it takes tens of thousands of years. This means that if you are lucky enough to have a winter that is not as cold as usual, with little snow, or even two or three such winters in a row, it is not climate change. It is simply an anomaly—an event that falls outside the normal statistical range but does not represent any consistent long-term change.

Facts about global warming

It is also important to understand and know the facts about global warming as even small changes in climate can have serious consequences.

• When scientists talk about the “Ice Age,” you probably imagine a world frozen, covered in snow, and suffering from frigid temperatures. In fact, during the last Ice Age (ice ages recur approximately every 50,000 to 100,000 years), the average temperature of the earth was only 5 degrees Celsius cooler than today's average temperatures.
• Global warming is a significant increase in the Earth's temperature over a relatively short period of time as a result of human activities.
• In particular, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius over a period of one hundred to two hundred years will be considered global warming.
• Over the course of one century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant.
• Scientists have determined that the Earth warmed by 0.6 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2000.
• Of the past 12 years, 11 have ranked among the warmest years since 1850. was 2016.
• The warming trend of the last 50 years is almost double the trend of the last 100 years, which means that the rate of warming is accelerating.
• Ocean temperatures increased to at least a depth of 3,000 meters; The ocean absorbs more than 80 percent of all heat added to the climate system.
• Glaciers and snow cover have decreased in regions in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, contributing to sea level rise.
• Average Arctic temperatures have nearly doubled the global average over the past 100 years.
• The area covered by frozen land in the Arctic has declined by about 7 percent since 1900, with seasonal declines of up to 15 percent.
• Eastern regions of the Americas, northern Europe, and parts of Asia experienced increased precipitation; in other regions, such as the Mediterranean and southern Africa, there is a drying trend.
• Droughts are more intense, lasting longer and covering larger areas than in the past.
• There were significant changes in temperature extremes - hot days and heat waves were more frequent while cold days and nights were less frequent.
• While scientists have not observed an increase in the number of tropical storms, they have observed an increase in the intensity of such storms in the Atlantic Ocean, correlating with rising ocean surface temperatures.

Natural climate changes

Scientists have determined that it takes thousands of years for the Earth to naturally warm or cool 1 degree. In addition to the repeating cycles of the Ice Age, Earth's climate can change due to volcanic activity, differences in plant life, changes in the amount of radiation from the sun, and natural changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Global warming on Earth is caused by an increase in the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect itself allows our planet to remain warm enough for life.

While it's not a perfect analogy, you can think of the Earth as your car parked on a sunny day. You've probably noticed that the inside of a car is always much hotter than the temperature outside if the car has been sitting in the sun for a while. The sun's rays penetrate through the car windows. Some of the heat from the sun is absorbed by the seats, dashboard, carpeting and floor mats. When these objects release this heat, it doesn't all escape through the windows. Some heat is reflected back. The heat emitted by the seats is a different wavelength than the sunlight that entered through the windows in the first place.

So a certain amount of energy comes in and less energy goes out. The result is a gradual increase in temperature inside the car.

The essence of the greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect and its essence are much more complex than the temperature in the sun inside the car. When the sun's rays hit the Earth's atmosphere and surface, approximately 70 percent of the energy remains on the planet, absorbed by the land, oceans, plants and other things. The remaining 30 percent is reflected in space by clouds, snow fields and other reflective surfaces. But even the 70 percent that passes does not remain on the earth forever (otherwise the earth will become a blazing fireball). The Earth's oceans and land masses eventually radiate heat. Some of this heat ends up in space. The rest is absorbed and ends up in certain parts of the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane gas and water vapor. These components in our atmosphere absorb all the heat that they emit. Heat that does not penetrate the Earth's atmosphere keeps the planet warmer than in outer space because more energy enters through the atmosphere than exits. This is the essence of the greenhouse effect, which keeps the earth warm.

Earth without greenhouse effect

What would the Earth look like if there were no greenhouse effect at all? It will likely be very similar to Mars. Mars doesn't have a thick enough atmosphere to reflect enough heat back to the planet, so it gets very cold there.

Some scientists have suggested that if implemented, we could terraform the surface of Mars by sending out "factories" that would spew water vapor and carbon dioxide into the air. If enough material can be created, the atmosphere can begin to thicken enough to retain more heat and allow plants to live on the surface. Once plants spread across Mars, they would begin to produce oxygen. In a few hundred or thousand years, Mars may actually have an environment where humans can simply walk, thanks to the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect occurs due to certain natural substances in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, humans have been pouring huge amounts of these substances into the air since the Industrial Revolution. The main ones are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colorless gas that is a by-product of combustion of organic matter. It makes up less than 0.04 percent of Earth's atmosphere, most of which was deposited by volcanic activity very early in the planet's life. Today, human activity is pumping huge volumes of CO2 into the atmosphere, leading to an overall increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. These elevated concentrations are considered a major contributor to global warming because carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation. Most of the energy that leaves Earth's atmosphere comes in this form, so extra CO2 means more energy absorption and an overall rise in the planet's temperature.

Carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Earth's largest volcano Mauna Loa, Hawaii reports that carbon dioxide emissions worldwide have increased from about 1 billion tons in 1900 to about 7 billion tons in 1995. also notes that the average temperature of the Earth's surface increased from 14.5 degrees C in 1860 to 15.3 degrees C in 1980.

The pre-industrial amount of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere was about 280 parts per million, which means that for every million molecules of dry air, 280 of them were CO2. In contrast to the 2017 level, CO2 share is 379 mg.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is another important greenhouse gas. Although the amounts released by human activity are not as large as the amount of CO2, nitrous oxide absorbs much more energy than CO2 (about 270 times more). For this reason, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also focus on N2O. Using large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer on crops releases nitrous oxide in large quantities and is also a byproduct of combustion.

Methane is a flammable gas and is the main component of natural gas. Methane occurs naturally through the decomposition of organic material and is often found as “swamp gas.”

Man-made processes produce methane in several ways:

• By extracting it from coal
• From large herds of livestock (i.e. digestive gases)
• From bacteria in rice fields
• Decomposition of waste in landfills

Methane acts in the same way as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, absorbing infrared energy and storing thermal energy on Earth. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 was 1,774 parts per billion. Although there is not as much methane in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, methane can absorb and release twenty times more heat than CO2. Some scientists even suggest that large-scale release of methane into the atmosphere (for example, due to the release of huge chunks of methane ice trapped beneath the oceans) could have created the short periods of intense global warming that led to some of the mass extinctions in the planet's distant past.

Carbon dioxide and methane concentrations

Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in 2017 exceeded their natural limits over the past 650,000 years. Much of this increase in concentration is due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Scientists know that an average drop of just 5 degrees Celsius over thousands of years could trigger an ice age.

• If the temperature increases

So what would happen if the Earth's average temperature increased by a few degrees in just a few hundred years? There is no clear answer. Even short-term weather forecasts are never completely accurate because weather is a complex phenomenon. When it comes to long-term climate forecasts, all we can manage are guesses based on knowledge of climate through history.

However, it can be stated that Glaciers and ice shelves around the world are melting. The loss of large areas of surface ice could accelerate Earth's global warming because less energy from the sun would be reflected. The immediate result of melting glaciers will be rising sea levels. Initially, sea level rise will be only 3-5 centimeters. Even a small rise in sea level can cause flooding problems in low-lying coastal areas. However, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melts and collapses into the sea, it will raise sea levels by 10 meters and many coastal areas will disappear completely under the ocean.

Research Projections Show Sea Level Rise

As overall ocean temperatures rise, ocean storms such as tropical storms and hurricanes, which derive their fierce and destructive energy from the warm waters they pass through, may increase in strength.

If rising temperatures affect glaciers and ice shelves, could the polar ice caps be at risk of melting and rising oceans?

Impact of water vapor and other greenhouse gases

Water vapor is the most common greenhouse gas, but it is most often the result of climate change rather than anthropogenic emissions. Water or moisture on the Earth's surface absorbs heat from the sun and the environment. When enough heat has been absorbed, some of the liquid molecules may have enough energy to evaporate and begin to rise into the atmosphere as vapor. As the steam rises higher and higher, the temperature of the surrounding air becomes lower and lower. Eventually, the steam loses enough heat to the surrounding air to allow it to return to the liquid. The gravitational pull of the earth then causes the liquid to "fall" downwards, completing the cycle. This cycle is also called "positive feedback."

Water vapor is harder to measure than other greenhouse gases, and scientists are unsure exactly what role it plays in Earth's global warming. Scientists believe there is a correlation between the increase in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere and the increase in water vapor.

As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it ends up condensing into clouds, which are more able to reflect solar radiation (allowing less energy to reach the earth's surface and warm it).

Are the polar ice caps in danger of melting and rising oceans? It might happen, but no one knows when it might happen.

The earth's main ice sheet is Antarctica at the South Pole, which contains about 90 percent of the world's ice and 70 percent of its fresh water. Antarctica is covered with ice averaging 2133 m thick.

If all the ice in Antarctica melts, sea levels around the world will rise by about 61 meters. But the average air temperature in Antarctica is -37 ° C, so the ice there is not in danger of melting.

On the other side of the world, at the North Pole, the ice is not as thick as at the South Pole. Ice floats in the Arctic Ocean. If it melts, sea level will not be affected.

There is a significant amount of ice covering Greenland, which would add another 7 meters to the oceans if it melted. Because Greenland is closer to the equator than Antarctica, temperatures are higher there, so the ice is likely to melt. University scientists say ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland combined accounts for about 12 percent of sea level rise.

But there may be a less dramatic reason for higher sea levels than melting polar ice: higher water temperatures.

Water is most dense at 4 degrees Celsius.

Above and below this temperature, the density of water decreases (the same weight of water takes up more space). As the overall temperature of water increases, it naturally expands slightly causing the oceans to rise.

Less dramatic changes would occur around the world as average temperatures would increase. Temperate climates with four seasons will have a longer growing season with more rainfall. This can be useful in many ways for these areas. However, less temperate areas of the world are likely to see rising temperatures and sharp declines in precipitation, leading to prolonged droughts and potentially creating deserts.

Because Earth's climate is so complex, no one is sure how much climate change in one region will affect other regions. Some scientists theorize that decreasing sea ice in the Arctic could reduce snowfall because Arctic cold fronts would be less intense. This could affect everything from farmland to the ski industry.

What are the consequences

The most devastating effects of global warming, and also the most difficult to predict, are the responses of the world's living ecosystems. Many ecosystems are very delicate, and the slightest change can kill several species, as well as any other species that depend on them. Most ecosystems are interconnected, so the chain reaction of impacts can be immeasurable. The results could be something like a forest gradually dying off into grassland or entire coral reefs dying.

Some ecosystems are already changing dramatically due to climate change. American climate scientists report that much of what was once tundra in Northern Canada is turning into forests. They also noticed that the transition from tundra to forest is not linear. Instead, the change seems to occur in fits and starts.

The human costs and consequences of global warming are difficult to quantify. Thousands of lives a year can be lost as the elderly or sick suffer from heatstroke and other heat-related injuries. Poor and underdeveloped countries will suffer the worst consequences as they will not have the financial resources to deal with rising temperatures. Huge numbers of people could die from starvation if reduced rainfall limits crop growth and from disease if coastal flooding leads to widespread waterborne disease.

It is estimated that farmers lose about 40 million tons of grains like wheat, barley and corn every year. Scientists have found that an increase in average temperature of 1 degree leads to a decrease in yield by 3-5%.

Is global warming a real problem?

Despite the scientific consensus on the issue, some people don't think global warming is happening at all. There are several reasons for this:

They don't think the data shows a measurable upward trend in global temperatures, either because we don't have enough long-term historical climate data or because the data we do have isn't clear enough.

Some scientists believe the data is being misinterpreted by people already concerned about global warming. That is, these people are looking for evidence of global warming in statistics, rather than looking at the evidence objectively and trying to understand what it means.

Some argue that any increase in global temperatures we are seeing could be natural climate change, or it could be due to factors other than greenhouse gases.

Most scientists accept that global warming appears to be happening on Earth, but some don't believe it's a big deal. These scientists say the Earth is more resilient to climate change on this scale than we think. Plants and animals will adapt to subtle shifts in weather patterns, and it is unlikely that anything catastrophic will happen as a result of global warming. Slightly longer growing seasons, changes in precipitation levels and stronger weather are generally not catastrophic, they say. They also argue that the economic damage caused by reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be far more detrimental to humans than any of the effects of global warming.

In some ways, scientific consensus can be controversial. The real power to effect significant change lies in the hands of those who make national and global policies. Politicians in many countries are reluctant to propose and implement changes because they feel the costs may outweigh any risks associated with global warming.

Some common climate policy issues:

• Changing carbon emissions and production policies could lead to job losses.
• India and China, which continue to rely heavily on coal as their main source of energy, will continue to cause environmental problems.

Because scientific evidence is about probabilities rather than certainties, we cannot be sure that human behavior is contributing to global warming, that our contribution is significant, or that we can do anything to correct it.

Some believe that technology will find a way to get us out of the global warming mess, so any changes to our policies will ultimately be unnecessary and cause more harm than good.

What's the correct answer? This may be difficult to understand. Most scientists will tell you that global warming is real and that it will likely cause some harm, but the scale of the problem and the dangers posed by its effects are widely open to debate.