Bookmaker margin: what is it and where is the lowest? Bookmaker's margin. What is margin in betting? Which bookmaker is better to choose?

As you know, the bookmaker is always in the black, that is, in profit. Even if your bet wins, it's still the same. To understand this, you need to understand what margin is in sports betting.

What is margin in sports betting?

Margin is the difference between the real probabilities and those set by the bookmaker in his line. It determines how much profit the bookmaker will receive from bets. It can be calculated by taking two or three opposite outcomes for the same event and expressing their probability as a percentage. If we add up these probabilities for the outcome of two or three opposite events and subtract 100 from the resulting number, we get a margin.

As you understand, the higher this number is, the more profit the office will receive. But it also cannot be too high, since then no one will place bets - the odds will be very low. An important principle for a successful bookmaker is to find the middle ground between too low and too high a margin.

Let's look at all this with an example.

How to calculate bookmaker margin - examples

Let's take the football match Arsenal - Manchester City and try to calculate the odds and margin.

Let’s assume that as a result of the analysis we were able to find out the teams’ chances:

• Arsenal – 30%;
• draw – 20%;
• Manchester City – 50%.

As you can see, the rivals are not equal at all. Let's try to calculate the odds in the traditional, European format. We get the following result:

• Arsenal – 100/30=3.3;
• draw – 100/20=5;
• Manchester City – 100/50=2.

Most players will decide to bet on the favorite. The bets will be divided approximately as follows:

• Arsenal – 35% (that is, 35% of all bets fall on the triumph of the “Gunners”, 35% of bettors believe in them;
• draw – 10%;
• Manchester City – 55%.

Let's try to calculate the bookmaker's possible profit. Let the total amount of bets be equal to 1000 rubles. That is, 350 was bet on an Arsenal win, 100 on a draw and 550 on City. Let's say Arsenal win, then the bookmaker will have to pay 350*3.3=1155 rubles if there is a draw, 100*5=500 if Manchester wins, 550*2=1100.

That is, in two cases the company will be in the red, and it simply cannot allow this to happen. The solution is to reduce the coefficients. Let them now become like this:

• Arsenal – 2.8;
• draw – 4;
• Manchester City -1.7.

Betting ratio from total amount the same. Now we count. If Arsenal wins, you will need to pay 350 * 2.8 = 980 rubles, if there is a draw - 10 * 4 = 400, if City - 550 * 1.7 = 935 units Russian currency. It turns out that with such odds, the bookmaker simply cannot be in the red.

Let's convert these coefficients back into probabilities. We get this:

• Arsenal – 100/2.8=35%;
• draw – 100/4=25%;
• Manchester City – 100/1.7=58%.

Let's add it all together 35+25+58=118%. If we subtract 100 from this value, that is, 118-100, we get 18% - this is the bookmaker’s margin! As mentioned above, this is the difference between the odds given by the bookmaker and the real ones.

If you are just starting your journey in big betting, keep this in mind:

1. When choosing a bookmaker, always calculate the average margin yourself. Bookmaker representatives may embellish real values. You already know what margin in betting is and you have enough knowledge for this.
2. Choose those bookmakers where the margin is lower than others. Yes, her line may be less extensive, then you will have to choose what is best for you.
3. Always consider margin in sure bets. Because of its meaning, the entire scheme may not work.

Bookmakers' margin is their guaranteed earnings, a certain percentage that bookmakers charge on every bet made. The size of the margin directly affects the value of the offered odds: the lower it is, the more profitable the odds are for the betting enthusiast. The bookmaker does not clearly advertise the size of the margin, and therefore, to assess the effectiveness of the game in a particular office, you need to learn how to calculate it yourself.

What is margin in betting (from French. margin- difference, advantage), can be explained using the example of an ordinary coin. As we know, the probability of heads or tails falling is the same - 50 percent each. And if the bookmaker accepted bets on this event, then, in fact, he would have to give equal odds of 2.00 for both outcomes.

You bet on heads, your friend - on tails, and in any outcome, all the money bet will be returned to the players. But in reality, this is unprofitable for the bookmaker - he will still receive his commission, allowing him to bet on equally probable events with a coefficient of not 2.00, but, say, 1.91, which corresponds to a margin of 4.7 percent. From two opposite bets of 100 conventional units each, the bookmaker will return 191 into circulation and take 9 conventional units forever.

In the conditions of the “heads - tails” event and similar ones (for example, an even-odd total in basketball), you will never be able to make a profit at a distance precisely because of the margin factor. But in other events, where you can fully demonstrate your predictive talent, the margin is just an additional obstacle - with a margin of 4 percent, you have to analyze 4 percent more accurately than the bookmaker in order to at least not lose money.

Margin is the entry barrier that must be overcome to make a profit, and the height of this barrier varies depending on the book, the popularity of the event, the sport and the individual lines. It is most convenient to calculate the margin as a percentage.

How to calculate margin as a percentage

The two most common situations for calculating margin are events with two and three options to choose from.

Calculation formula for outcomes with two options:

(1/Odds per player 1) × 100% + (1/Odds per player 2) × 100% = 100% + margin

For example, let's take one of the most popular sports for betting - tennis. Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro met in the final of the US Open 2018. The bookmaker accepted bets on Djokovic's victory with odds of 1.45, and on del Potro - 2.84.

(1/Odds per player 1) × 100% = 68.97%

(1/Odds per player 2) × 100% = 35.21%

100% + margin = 68.97% + 35.21% = 104.18%

Thus, the bookmaker's margin on the main outcomes of the US Open final was 4.18 percent.

Calculation formula for bets with three options (1x2):

(1/Team 1) × 100% + (1/Draw) × 100% + (1/Team 2) × 100% = 100% + margin

Consider the 2018 Champions League football match between CSKA Moscow and Real Madrid. The bookmaker estimated CSKA's victory at odds of 8, a draw at 5.25, Real Madrid's success could be played for 1.408. We calculate the margin based on the proposed odds:

100% + margin = 12.5% ​​+ 19.05% + 71.02% = 102.57%

The Champions League is one of the leading tournaments in the world in terms of bet volumes; for bookmakers it is an extremely reliable competition, and therefore the bookmaker limited itself to a low margin of 2.57 percent for the group stage match.

Tips for newbies about bookmaker margin: don't let your guard down

From the calculation examples presented, it may seem that the margin in football is lower than in tennis, but this is not entirely true: here, rather, we're talking about about the difference in the approach of individual bookmakers - who has what priorities.

Indeed, each bookmaker has its own tactics for attracting players, and the size of the margin is just one of the interaction tools. The comfort of the game can be influenced by a variety of factors: the number of offers and sports, the convenience of depositing and withdrawing money, bonus promotions, betting limits, and so on.

Understanding the margins of different Russian bookmakers will help you form on Legalbet. For beginners, another wording will be clearer: the rating clearly shows which bookmakers give best odds. The rating is formed separately for each of the most popular sports.

But not everything is so simple, and even after choosing a profitable bookmaker, you always need to be on your guard. In the same bookmaker you can encounter the main outcomes with a margin of 3%, and in the same event, plunging into the list (for example, in the statistics of corners), you will encounter a margin above 7%.

The value of the margin strongly depends on the popularity of the tournament and the type of sport in a particular office - favorable odds on the Champions League are no guarantee that the same bookmaker will make a generous offer on cricket or baseball. All offers must be checked individually, choosing a suitable bookmaker for your playing style.

Using the margin calculation formula, you can protect yourself from getting into a obviously losing situation and choose favorable odds to suit your taste. The main thing is to treat margins without fanaticism - for example, at a vegetable market you buy not only from the seller with the lowest price, but also where the products are fresher, there is more choice, or the seller is simply a pleasant person to you. When choosing a bookmaker, also take into account a combination of factors, because you need to play responsibly and with pleasure.

This allows the office to make a profit regardless of the distribution of bets. The higher the margin, the higher the profit of the bookmaker.

Let's take a closer look at what betting margin is and how to calculate it.

What is margin in sports betting?

Each player paid attention to the fact that events that in another situation would be equally probable, in the bookmaker's office have odds of 1.85-1.95.

Let's look at an example. A bookmaker offers to place a bet on a tennis match. A draw is impossible here, the opponents are approximately equal. Chances – 50*50. We convert the probability of victory for each of them into odds: 100% / 50% = 2.

The margin is set individually in each office. In some it does not exceed 2%, in others it reaches 10 or higher. It all depends on how much the bookmaker plans to earn, and how he feels about the fall in bets - most players prefer to play in bookmakers with a small margin.

How to calculate bookmaker margin

Finding out the margin that the bookmaker puts into the odds is very simple. To do this, it is enough to know the formula.

Margin = (100 / K1 + 100 / K2) – 100. This formula is suitable for two possible outcomes.

Margin = (100 / K1 + 100 / K2 + 100 / K3) – 100 – situation with three possible outcomes.

Eg, let's calculate the margin for a tennis match. Bets are divided into the victory of the first athlete and the victory of the second athlete. P1 = 2.30, P2 = 1.60. There is no draw in tennis.

Margin = (100 / 2.3) + (100 / 1.65) – 100 = 104.08 – 100 = 4.08 . This is the margin that the bookmaker has included in this odds.

We carry out a similar calculation for football match. There are three possible outcomes:

• Victory of the first team P1 with odds of 1.5
• Draw with odds 4.0
• Victory of the second team P2 with odds of 2.6

We calculate the margin using the formula:

Margin = (100 / 2.5 + 100 / 4.0 + 100 / 2.6) – 100 = 103.46 – 100 = 3.46 – the amount of margin that the bookmaker puts into bets.

In some cases, it is not possible to determine the margin in this way - for example, if the match involves a 100% favorite, and the bookmaker sets double-digit odds for the underdog to win. In this case, the size of the coefficient is influenced not only by the chances of both teams to win and the margin, but also by the number of bets placed on the victory of the favorite and the underdog. The bookmaker can vary the odds to even out the statistics a little.

In most cases, the margin can be calculated and this data can be used in the future when choosing a bookmaker for a bet. The lower the margin, the higher the coefficient, and the more amount potential profit with the right bet. If you place bets rarely and little by little, this factor will not be important to you. However, if you plan to receive a stable income from betting, in the long term (1000 bets or more) even half a percent will result in a substantial amount.

In an ideal world, if you make a bet with a friend on an event with two equally likely outcomes, with a 50 to 50 chance, the winning odds for both bettors will be equal to 2.0, but in a bookmaker’s office everything is a little different, due to the fact that bookmakers initially lay as a percentage of margin.

Margin- this is a hidden percentage of the bookmaker’s guaranteed profit, which is included in the odds and is considered a payment to the bookmaker for mediating a dispute between players. You can calculate this percentage using a special calculator, downloading an MS Excel file, or manually using the formulas below.

The formula for calculating margin for sports with two outcomes (tennis, baseball, etc.) looks like this:

M = (100/K1+100/K2)-100,

where M is the margin value, K1 is the coefficient for the victory of the first athlete (team), K2 is the coefficient for the second.

For three outcomes (football, volleyball, basketball, etc.):

M = (100/K1+100/K2+100/K3)-100

For example, if a bookmaker gives odds of 1.6 for Tottenham to win, 4.0 for a draw and 5.75 for Aston Villa in a match between Tottenham and Aston Villa, then the margin will be equal to M = (100/1.6+100/4+ 100/5.75)-100=4.89%, which is quite good for a player. Leading bookmakers have a margin that does not exceed 5, and can even be only 2-3%, but there are cases when it reaches 15% and in this case it is almost impossible to beat the bookmaker over a long distance. It is better to run away from such an office immediately.

And the bookmaker’s margin is a fundamentally important parameter for a player’s understanding. Margin can be estimated “by eye” only in some cases; more often it is necessary to use special calculators or carry out the simple calculations described above. We advise you not to contact bookmakers who include in their odds a guaranteed profit of more than 5%, since in this case the bet between the player and the bookmaker will be made on conditions that are unfair for the player.

Bookmaker "" always has high odds and a minimum margin (3-4%), which guarantees a game with a bookmaker on conditions acceptable to the player and a high probability of winning through a sports account, which you are unlikely to get anywhere else.

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Did you know that the bookmaker's margin plays important V sports betting? The higher the bookmaker's margin, the more accurate your predictions must be for a successful long-term game.

Margin and best prices

At its core, margin is the bookmaker’s income, which is included in the odds and makes the sum of the probabilities of all possible events more than 100%. We considered the formula for calculating the probability of the outcome of a particular event based on the bookmaker’s odds when modeling gaming strategies:

Let's consider the case of throwing dice. The probability of getting any number of dice is 1/6, this is confirmed by Wikipedia. Odds expressed in bookmaker odds in in this case equal to the value 6.00. However, the bookmaker needs to make money, and therefore will offer the odds for any number falling on the dice not 6, but 5. The bookmaker reduces the odds in this case by one, thereby forming its income.

Returning to the formula for calculating the probability based on the bookmaker's odds of 5, we get the probability of getting any number of dice equal to 20%. And since there are six possible outcomes when rolling, the sum of the probabilities will be 120% (6 options x 20% in the outcome). The difference between this sum of probabilities and the real probability is the margin, and goes in favor of the bookmaker.

How does a bookmaker's margin affect bets?

The higher the bookmaker's margin, the greater the odds are stacked against the bettor.

In the example above, with odds of 5.00, bettors must guess the correct outcome 20% of the time to break even. Out of 100 bets, you will need to make 20 winning ones in order not to end up as a loser. If we remove the bookmaker's margin from these calculations, then it would be enough to correctly guess 17 out of 100 bets to break even.

When flipping a coin, fair odds would be 2.00 on heads or tails. In this case, 50 correctly guessed coin sides out of 100 possible tosses will lead to a break-even game. However, if we add the bookmaker's 5% margin to the coin toss example, the bookmaker's odds are already 1.904. In this case, already 53 correct guesses will lead to a break-even result. Note in the graph above, the higher the bookmaker's margin, the more accurate your bets need to be.

conclusions

When playing long-term, the bookmaker's margin begins to play a significant role. The higher the margin, the more accurate your bets need to be, in the long run. In one-time or infrequent bets, you will not notice the influence of the margin on the result of the game, however, when playing for a long time, you need to pay attention to the bookmaker’s margin and choose the bookmaker’s office that has a lower margin. A bookmaker with zero margin does not exist in nature, since the office makes its profit not from your lost bet, but from the margin, which, in fact, is charged from the winning bet.

Bettors often choose Pinnacle Sports, which offers a 2% margin on popular sports, compared to the industry average of 5%.

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