What odds are best to bet on? Sports betting strategy: express bets Lower odds are better to bet

So, in the previous article we looked at “How to make money on bets in bookmakers”, today we’ll talk about game tactics so as not to go into the red with bookmakers. The conversation will focus on the type of bet on express bets with small odds. To make this type of bet, you need to understand what express bets are.

Express– This is a type of bet on several outcomes of different events. By choosing small odds, you can significantly increase the final odds, which will definitely pass, since the probability of small bets passing is very high. Remember: all the low odds you select are multiplied together, giving us a decent odds at the end. The type of sport can be different, the bets can also be different, let it be TM or TB, on victory, on the number, for example, of cards or corners. Less words, everything is shown in the photo below, an example of an express train.

The advantage of express bets is to increase the odds due to passing matches. Let's look at how I played and won decent money by analyzing such games. I played on the fact that there was a low probability of the outcome of a football match with a zero score and decided to play on this. Also, no one limits you in choosing other types of bets, where you are more knowledgeable. When placing bets on various game outcomes, always analyze and check the team compositions, the availability of cards, etc. This method will greatly increase your chances of success; you shouldn’t point your finger at the sky without analyzing past games and looking at the team composition! Make money betting at bookmakers It’s possible, you just need a little patience, the ability to think and calculate the outcome of the match.

If you want to further increase your chances of winning, I recommend that you combine express + “catch-up”, your chances of winning will increase several times. ABOUT

Many bookmaker players begin their gaming journey in sports betting with low and sometimes very low odds. At the initial stage, a thought appears in the head, kef. 1.2, this is 20% per annum and all you have to do is guess just one event, betting on the clear favorite. However, it later turns out that even obvious favorites can lose. An example is the match Barcelona - Rubin (Kazan), seemingly invincible, at that time Josepe Guardiola's team managed to lose at home, in a crowded stadium, 1-2. What can we even talk about if odds of 1.02 - 1.0.6 are often not played in tennis?

We can talk about the topic of luck or bad luck in sports betting for quite a long time, however, if a player bets on odds of 1.03 and the bet does not go through, he only has himself to blame for this. In such situations, you need to understand that the analysis was superficial, or it was not done at all.

The advantages of small odds or how to lose a bank?

1. Time. Many people mistakenly believe that since the odds for the outcome of an event are small, then the probability of success for a player/team with a low odds is high and it is not worth spending time on analysis.

2. Express. Most players who bet on express games with small odds will end up in the red in any case without analysis at a distance. Even if these express bets go through several times, after the first loss, you will begin to doubt the strategy of small odds, since it will be very difficult to win back.

What do you need to know about betting on small odds?

1. Women's sports. If you are still young and do not want your head to sit for an hour or two, then under no circumstances bet on events with small odds in which girls/women perform.

2. Team name. Even if a team plays with big name, she can lose and she can even give in to an outsider. It is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis of what form the players are in, the atmosphere, what motivation the players have, etc.

3.Live. It is recommended to place bets on odds from 1.01 to 1.2 only live or a couple of hours before the start of the match, since the team coach may underestimate the opponent and release a second squad, or in general he may believe that this match does not solve anything for his team. And knowing that the second team is playing or the team leaders have not entered the field, you can safely bypass this event.

4. Cup match. Many Championships feature tournaments that are secondary for the favorite clubs. Therefore, they usually send out a second squad for the game, which quite often loses games to outsiders.

5. Beginning of the Championship. You should not place bets with low odds on favorites at the very beginning of the season. It is not always clear in what form the championship leader can approach the start of the season. For example, Spartak M. RFPL season 2017-2018, the red-whites failed the start of the championship, thereby players who took bets on Spartak’s victory with small odds were left at a big disadvantage.

Conclusion

Everything written below applies only to betting on football, unless another sport is indicated.

I would like to try out a strategy that just recently came to mind. Briefly: football, total over 0.5 (odds 1.05 - 1.07), express bet of 3, maximum 5 events, bet from RUR 50,000. Yes, it looks risky, you can lose a lot of money at once, and the potential winnings are much less than the amount invested. But maybe there is still common sense in this strategy?

And now, in order.

A little bit about yourself

Why am I looking for a new strategy?

Total is more than 0.5 and an attempt to justify the strategy

I don’t care who wins and how many goals they score and concede. Let the favorites lose or draw. The main thing is to have at least one single goal per match. There is no need to be an expert or have a great understanding of sports. And I’ve already seen a lot of forecasts from experts. Like them, all of us, ordinary bettors, try to think logically before a match: we analyze the state of the teams, their latest results, we look whether it is a home match for the team we are betting on or an away match, we evaluate the teams’ motivation... And how many mistakes happen: anything can happen on the field that we could not predict before the match, using our logic: for example, 2 red cards for Roma in the match with Porto on 08/23/16 and goodbye to the favorite. And there are a great many such examples.

Large bet - small odds. Event selection

If we place an express bet consisting of 3 events with odds. 1.05, then with a bet of 50,000 the winnings will be 50,000 x 1.1576 = 57880. You need to win 6.3 bets just to double the amount of the initial bet, i.e. win + 50,000 rub.

You can make an express bet from 5 events, or choose events where the odds for the total are more than 0.5 and higher, for example, 1.07-1.09. But the risk accordingly increases.

Finally

Whether this strategy is good or bad - time will tell. But I understood one thing for sure: if you really want to win something, you need a lot of patience and... a lot of money. There is nothing to do with one thousand rubles for this purpose in the bookmaker. And with two too. To win big (in the long term, a little each time), you need to risk a much larger amount.

As I said at the beginning, I am not experienced player , so don't judge too harshly. I just wanted to think about this strategy.

Hi all! Surely many of you are familiar with the financial strategy of sports betting called Dynamic?(more about her). If yes, then you probably know how scientifically (mathematically) the authors approach strategies... In today's article we'll talk about another very interesting strategy from the authors of Dynamic.

It's about financial strategy for sports betting called “Multiexpress”!

Let’s immediately make a reservation that on the official website this strategy costs a very impressive amount (10,000 rubles!). For you, we We will reveal the essence of the strategy absolutely free!!!

So, let's begin...

(All of the following is published from the words of the author of the strategy and is not a statement by the site administration)

Multiexpress

This strategy is a combination of several gaming ways(schemes) and brings in practice at least 40% of the working bank per month when working out 40 bets per month. The ability to play in several parallel series increases the strategy's potential in terms of profitability.

• Operating coefficients: 1.6 – 3.0

The strategy is based on combining several events into groups of express bets, the outcomes of which cover all the most probable options for the outcome of the events and, in case of winning, bring more income than the usual placing of express bets.

Any values ​​can be used as working coefficients, however, the meaning of the strategy is tied to real rates(and not just theory) is to work with events, the probability of winning for which bookmakers estimate at 30-70%. This range roughly corresponds to the level of odds from 1.6 to 3.0.

Like all other strategies that are available for a fee, the Multi-Express strategy underwent long-term testing from September 2015 to January 2016. During testing, 270 cycles of bets were made (per cycle we consider one multi-express from 2-4 events, more about the number of events below ). The profit rate was 52% of the working bank's monthly amount. The Martingale system, based on three levels, was used as a secondary financial strategy. More than two levels were not needed during testing.

How the strategy works

For a simpler understanding, let's take a simple example with two events. Each of which involves two possible outcomes. Here is an example of such two events: tennis, pre-match odds:

Events for multi-express...

For greater clarity, we took coefficients outside the recommended range. This will avoid possible confusion with rounding values. In practice, you can take such odds, but preferably those indicated in the description of the strategy, namely 1.6 - 3.0.

Another significant advantage of the strategy is ability to work with pre-match odds. Which adds convenience to working due to a sufficient reserve of time.

The bookmaker offers the following pairs of odds:

• Event 1: 1.444 (Outcome 1A)/2.60 (Outcome 1B)
• Event 2: 1.48 (Outcome 2A)/2.55 (Outcome 2B)

Before moving on to the algorithm for working on the Multi-Express strategy, we will carry out a mathematical assessment of the possible outcomes of these two events, as well as the probability of positive outcomes of all express bets that can be made from them.

Mathematical justification of the strategy

We will evaluate using a table, remembering that the data are not true probabilities, but an estimate of the bookmaker’s office, which does not play a significant role for us, since the assessment is carried out by the same office and deviations from the true probability values ​​will be leveled out over time.

So, the probabilities for each outcome are:

• Exodus 1A, odds. 1.444 - probability 63.13%.
• Exodus 1B, odds. 2.60 - probability 34.97%.
• Exodus 2A, odds. 1.48 - probability 61.43%.
• Exodus 2B, odds. 2.55 - probability 35.65%.

Rounding and writing in mathematical form, we get the probabilities of 0.63; 0.35; 0.61 and 0.36 respectively.

Now let's calculate the probabilities of all possible express bets that can be made. Here are the possible pairs of events:

• 1A-2A. Probability 0.63*0.61=0.38. Cef. express = 2.14
• 1A-2B. Probability 0.63*0.36=0.23. Cef. express = 3.68
• 1B-2A. Probability 0.35*0.61=0.21. Cef. express = 3.85
• 1B-2B. Probability 0.35*0.36=0.13. Cef. express = 6.63

Everything is natural. Express evaluation of bookmakers with maximum odds has a minimum probability of failure. And vice versa.

These calculations will be useful to us a little further, but now we will draw your attention to the extremely important point, which was already mentioned above: listed odds and probabilities are not true , but only a consequence of the bookmaker's assessment. And, as practice confirms, the bookmaker does not always accurately assess upcoming events.

We won’t dwell separately, but let’s remember the principles of operation of a bookmaker’s office, the earnings of which are based not on the losses of players, but on receiving profits included in the margin. We will also mention the factors of line movement on the size of the coefficients. And we will draw a natural and quite logical conclusion: the previously calculated probabilities are evaluative, not real ones. Simply put, it cannot be said that Express 1A-2A will definitely win as the most likely one. And vice versa - that any of the other three express trains will not win.

Let's return to the algorithm for working with the Multiexpress strategy.

It is necessary to put down three out of four express trains received. Having excluded most possible. That is, you need to enter express trains:

• 1A-2B.
• 1B-2A.
• 1B-2B.

These express bets cover all outcomes except the victory of both favorites.

Risky? Not at all!

A very important caveat: It is important that the odds are within the range specified for the strategy. Since the deviation from the probability of 0.5 is closest when working with odds of 1.6 – 3.0.

Keeping three factors in mind:

1. The bookmaker's assessment very often does not coincide with the real probability of the outcome of the event.
2. Events with an estimated probability close to 0.5 occur with a real probability of ~0.5.
3. Odds for more probable events usually underestimated by bookmakers, and less likely ones, accordingly, are often overestimated, which in our gaming model plays into our hands.

... we can conclude that in practice it is very likely that one of the bets on the favorite will not be placed, which is a winning factor for a player working with the MultiExpress strategy.

In a way, this express is a bet, although this definition is not entirely correct in the context of strategy. Since the fork implies slightly different characteristics.

Here we start from the fact that bets on the favorite outcome are often unavailable.

Bet sizes

The bet amounts are easy to calculate. To facilitate the calculation process, we will round the obtained values. So, three bets on odds: 3.68 – 3.85 – 6.63. The bet amounts must be inversely proportional to the odds and directly proportional to their amount. In our case it is $100 - $100 - $50. The working bank amount is $250. If you win any of the express bets, the profit will be:

• 1A-2B. 3.68*$100 - $250 = $118
• 1B-2A. 3.85*$100 - $250 = $135
• 1B-2B. 6.63*$50 - $250 = $81

The bet amount for each express can be calculated using the formula: BetX=X*(Kmax/Kx), Where X– base rate (it must be set, in the example it is $50), Kmax is the maximum of the express odds, and Kh- the coefficient of the express bet whose bet amount we are calculating.

Assessing the probability of winning and assessing risks

An amazing fact: when betting on two favorites, the player has a risk of losing (in our example) 1-0.38=0.62. Let us remind you that 0.38 is the calculated probability of winning an express bet for the victory of two favorites. That is, by betting on two favorites, the player will most likely lose! And the probability of winning will be more than 60%. No tricks - just math.

Reinsurance

If both favorites win, the player loses the working amount. By assessing the probabilities of such outcomes, it is possible to build a fairly safe financial model that reinsures the risks of loss. As already written above, during the test period the Martingale system (same) was used as a secondary financial strategy. We will not recommend its use as it contains a number of significant risks , to work with it you need a reserve of a working bank and a very strict preliminary calculation.

For those who will still reinsure multi-express bets using the Martingale strategy, let us remind you that the real probability for the recommended odds is higher, since in the example we took a larger spread in odds. And it is usually at least 0.7.

The strategy also feels quite good when reinsurance is achieved with the help of non-progressive financial strategies, for example, a percentage of a bank or a fixed profit.

Variability of strategy application

In the example above, for simplicity, a pair of two-output events is taken. Which gives four possible outcomes with a fairly small probability of winning. Compared to what you can get if you use the Multi-Express strategy for three or more two-way events.

Please note that it is not possible to work with three-way events (for example, a 1-X-2 market). Since the rules of most bookmakers directly prohibit placing multiple bets on the same markets with opposite outcomes. Therefore, the strategy is only applicable in two-output markets. In addition to 12 markets, these could be Tb2.5/Tm2.5; F1 (0)/2 and so on.

Using three or more events, the player significantly increases the chances of winning. In particular, subject to compliance with the recommended odds, the probability of winning for compiling express trains from:

• Two events - 68%
• Three events - 81%
• Four events - 90%

Where to work using the Multiexpress strategy?

Another strong advantage of the strategy is its versatility. You can work at any bookmaker's office, and working in pre-match mode allows you to place bets without haste, which reduces the possibility of making a mistake or miscalculation.

Please note that some bookmakers offer odds that differ from single bets when working with express bets. This is what Pinnacle does, for example - the odds for express bets are lower than those for single bets. This is why we recommend working with bookmaker: 1XBet.

It is highly advisable to distribute express bets to different bookmakers.

That’s the whole essence of the “Multiexpress” betting strategy, voiced by the author...

For those who still want to download the text of this strategy for themselves, we provide you with the following opportunity:

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That's all!

Happy betting!

Betting on small odds is a live strategy that is not popular enough, but it can provide reliable earnings in bookmakers. To achieve success, you need to take your time and take into account certain rules. Let's look at ways to make successful predictions with small odds.

Selecting competitions for low odds prediction strategy

This strategy for small odds requires carefully choosing sports matches, focusing on odds and statistics. It is recommended to choose matches with odds of approximately 1.1 – 1.4, except for those matches in which you are confident of the outcome.

Examples of fights with small odds. In the match Georgia - Wales, the forecast for 12 has a coefficient of 1.37, and 2X - 1.23.

In the match between the national teams of Italy and Macedonia, P1 has an odds of 1.09, and 12 has an odds of 1.056.

You should be careful when the favorite plays away games. Some clubs play well at home and can beat even the leaders.

An important role in this strategy is given to statistics of the results of past competitions and matches. Once suitable events have been determined based on the bookmaker's line and odds, it is necessary to carefully study the head-to-head results and statistics. It is important to consider how a particular club performs in a particular season at home and away. Face-to-face meetings will give a detailed picture of the possible result if you use bets at low odds.

Determining the most likely outcome

When the analysis using the small coefficients system is carried out, it is necessary to determine the most likely outcome to ensure a successful forecast. Here you can study sports forecasts or use special services.

There are situations when it is quite difficult to predict the likely outcome. For example, when one team is at the top of the table and the other at the bottom, but the favorite lost away last season. A clear example is Leicester, who became the champion of England, and in next season performed very poorly. Therefore, it is better to skip such events.

Types of bets with low odds

The strategy requires large bets and small odds. The following forecast options are distinguished:

• Live betting. The low odds betting system for live requires special care. You need to make predictions in cases where you are confident that a certain club will win. The score should be noticeably weighted to one side. Table tennis is not suitable for playing with small odds. Hockey is also poorly suited, as clubs often fight back in the last seconds.
• Capital Management. It is important to pay attention to the results here. It is worth raising the level of play when a better manages to double his bankroll. If a player has lost 50% of the bank amount, then, in accordance with the strategy, it is necessary to select odds up to 1.3, and bet half of the remaining bankroll. The time to increase the level will depend on the activity of the bettor.

conclusions

If you manage to achieve a stable increase of 10–11%, you can start withdrawing money from the bookmaker. The main thing is not to be nervous and act in accordance with the rules. You need to be patient and restrained to make money. The success of this system depends on the skills and endurance of the better.