Basketball strategies for the quarter catch up. What is the best live basketball betting strategy? Let's analyze the match analysis using an example

Today we’ll talk about basketball betting strategy. The topic is very interesting and many will appreciate it on its merits. The approach to strategy is not to study fundamentals forecasts and the state of the teams, and intuitively use the statistics that we have.

Strategy is not some secret, it is a systematic approach to betting based on results. Each new rate takes into account the result of the previous one. The only way. Without a system or strategy, you can quickly lose. Well, unless you have your own personal forecaster or privateer, of course.

I'll digress - for those who doubt— in several live matches, which I didn’t really choose. The test turned out to be interesting. Look at the screen there.

What is the essence of the strategy

The basketball betting system is simple. Let's look at the usual statistics of head-to-head matches for one tournament.

To be honest, I took the first league I came across, without a choice, for October 5, 2014. You can check it on MyScore.ru.

Let us remind you that In basketball there are 4 quarters of 10 minutes each. Bookmakers offer outcomes for each quarter. Moreover, before the match, as a rule, you can only bet on 1 quarter. In fact, even if there are others, they are not needed. So.

In every meeting there is an underdog and a leader. You choose the underdog to win in the first quarter. The coefficient for it is always higher. For example, the leader may have 1.75, and the outsider will have 2.2. If he wins this quarter, we get a win and forget about the match. There is no point in betting further, but there is a risk of losing what you have won.

If the outsider loses in the quarter— bet on him in the second quarter twice as much as the previous bet. At the end of the second quarter, if we win, we take it and forget about the match. If you lose, you get twice as much in the 3rd quarter, and then in the 4th quarter (at the same time, the “catch-up” system is used). Look at the statistics of any tournament yourself. As a rule, a team can take one of the quarters. Even an outsider. The statistics above prove the strategy is correct.

According to statistics, sometimes it still happens that the outsider loses all periods and quarters. But to avoid this, you need to select matches wisely. Here are the bets on the outcome of the game Zenit - Nymburk. Please note that during the live the odds for each outcome of the quarter do not change! And this is very important. They are adjusted for the overall victory of the team, but not for the outcome of the quarter. And this is a gift)

Alternative

You can bet according to the same scheme, but on the leader. Here the risk of losing is much lower. Cases when a leader drains all 4 quarters are very rare. As a rule, he will take 1.

But here less coefficient. If the bet on the leader is a quarter less than 1.5, then there is no point in betting at all. Unless you increase the bet by 3 each time. But we do not recommend such matches.

How to select matches

The question is, of course, very important. We We recommend looking at the head start for the entire game before the match. If the handicap is more than 10, then you only need to bet on the leader or not bet at all. Look at the picture below. Very good bet for the game Zenit - Nymburk. There is no obvious advantage here, and the match would have turned out with varying success in the quarters. You can safely bet on an outsider with a large odds and monitor the game or results.

Now pay close attention! After the match ended, the results of our forecast once again confirmed the strategy. Below is a screenshot of the results of the face-to-face meeting. Let me remind you that it was proposed to bet on an outsider, i.e. Nymburk. They lost in the first quarter, but won the second. The coefficient was 2.2.

Simple arithmetic - we lost the first thousand, bet 2 thousand - we won. Won 4400 rubles, minus betting expenses - 3000 rubles. Total net income is 1400 rubles.

How to reduce the number of levels to catch up?

What do they usually lose on?

if you are chasing profit and bet on several teams at once. It happens that something may go wrong in the game and you will have to bet up to level 4 to catch up. There may not be enough bank. Personally, I got into this once - I bet on 2 teams, reached level 3 and didn’t have enough money for 4. And just in the 4th quarter both teams won it back. Be careful.
bet on the outsider at odds. no higher than 2.5. If it’s more, you need to look at the team statistics carefully. According to my observations, from 2.0 to 2.5, the outsider team takes one quarter in 99% of cases. I noticed this pattern. If you bet on the leader, then if the leader loses 1 quarter, then the odds. the next quarter it falls again. Thus, the bookmaker also predicts the winning of the next quarter. If you continue to bet on the leader, then in order to win back your money using the catch-up system, you will have to increase it not 2 times, but 2.5 or 3 times each time. The favorite will, of course, win at least one, but you will have to be nervous).

Underwater rocks

Not everything is as simple and smooth as it seems at first glance. As you can see, the system was tested on BC Betcity. Yesterday, 10/07/2014, the match began, then there was a delay and the results of the quarters appeared 15 minutes later, that is, already in the middle of the second quarter. That is, the bet lost the first quarter, won the second, but there was no opportunity to place a bet.

Today, 10/08/2014, a new incident occurred - the match was scheduled, according to Betcity, for 2:15 p.m., but was held at 12:15 p.m. Frustration again. Look at the screenshots.

Basketball is one of the most popular sports among betting fans for a number of reasons - it is a dynamic game with frequent scoring attacks, unique in its kind among game types sports. In this article we will analyze one of popular strategies basketball betting.

A basketball match is divided into quarters, which makes it one of the most convenient sports for live betting, especially for playing with a catch-up strategy. In football and even hockey, where there are three periods, it is quite difficult to find a “distance” for a catch-up strategy in one match, but basketball, with a match divided into four parts, is almost ideal for this.

Any team can win one quarter in basketball

The essence of the “match by quarter” basketball betting strategy is that almost any team can win at least one quarter in a basketball match, and it is extremely rare that the match goes “in one basket” and all four quarters have one winner.

Let's test our thesis and simply take 10 random matches, for example, the Spanish Championship from April 12 to 25.

As we see in the picture, such matches where one team won in all quarters, in our random sample there were no, although there were two cases (Manresa - Cajasol and Baskonia - Zaragoza) when only one team won in the quarters, while the other was able to achieve only local draws in one or two game periods.

And this despite the fact that there were outright defeats here - in the match with Baskonia, Zaragoza, having lost 28 points in the end, was able not to lose the first quarter, and Bilbao, having lost to Canarias by 18 points, won the third quarter and looked decent in the first one. What are we leading to? Any team can win at least one quarter in basketball, if we are talking about serious tournaments where there is not a huge difference in class, and our observations suggest that it is very, very difficult for one team to win all periods of a basketball game.

It’s better to “catch up” with a victory in the outsider’s quarter

Based on these observations, we can play catch-up on quarters. It is, of course, more logical to bet on an outsider, since the odds for him are higher and will almost always be more than 2.0. If in the first quarter (which the favorite very often fails, giving a head start to the outsider) the bet does not go through, we double the amount and bet on the outsider winning in the second quarter, and so on according to the catch-up strategy.

The point of this basketball betting strategy is that even if that rare situation happens when one team wins all quarters, the amount of loss after four bets will be relatively small, but as experience shows, you still need to be able to run into such a game. In most cases, the basketball match we have chosen for the game will generate income at one of the stages of catching up and in this case it is better to move to another, starting from its first quarter.

In order to avoid failure and falling into rare cases of one-wicket matches, you need to carefully select matches for betting, and also do not hesitate to secure some of them in the form of an X2 bet on a quarter - as we see, draws are not rare here and should be kept in mind, especially in matches with a clear outsider.

This strategy of betting on basketball, of course, is not a win-win, but with due skill and caution it can be successful if you bet wisely, choose the right matches and have a good understanding of basketball, and be able to correlate the strengths of teams.

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How to use bets on totals in basketball, practical analysis of existing strategies and advice on whether you can win, as well as an overview of programs for calculating match totals based on statistics, can you trust them? All this is in this article.

A special feature of betting on basketball is the huge variety of totals in the line. This is explained by the division of the game into halves, quarters and the presence large quantity statistical indicators of general and individual related to the total.

What are there

What bets on total in basketball do bookmakers offer?

In the main line of the match there is a classic total - the number of points scored during the match by both teams. You can bet on the TB or TM of the specified amount of points.

Additional totals in basketball can be different. This

Bets on a total other than the average.
The number of points scored by teams not over the entire game, but over a certain interval - half a game, a quarter.
Total points for even or odd (match, half, quarter)
Individual total. This could be points scored, the number of fouls, rebounds, free throws, three-pointers, etc. The bookmaker offers such bets on both teams and individual players. ( What happens in other sports)
Asian total ( what does it look like in basketball)

There are also specific total bets:

Does total in basketball count with overtime (OT)?

Beginners inevitably have a question: is the total in basketball counted with or without overtime? The word overtime is often abbreviated as "OT".

There is no uniform approach in BC. Some calculate taking into account overtime, others without.

Some bookmakers set separate odds for regular time and taking into account overtime... Let's give an example of an excerpt from the rules of one well-known bookmaker.

Which total is more often even or odd?

Which is more common – total even or odd. On the Internet you can find arguments from supporters of both points of view, which are usually superficial in nature.

The rules of basketball are such that in addition to two-point, three-point, free throws, there are also other situations, for example, when teams are punished with an additional free throw (after a player scores a foul). All this makes, in my opinion, the choice of even/odd random.

That is, at a distance total, even or odd has no advantage.

This is confirmed by the even/odd odds at bookmakers - they are usually the same.

However there is interesting point: When a basketball match comes to an end, for example, 2-3 minutes remain, the even/odd total begins to change depending on the current score.

This suggests that over a short period of time, the two-point shot option still becomes the most likely.

This is the basis of one of the strategies that we will consider next.

Basketball total betting strategies

An overview of some strategies for totals in basketball.

Strategy for total in quarters even or odd + catch up

The strategy is simple and attractive; there are many reviews about it on the Internet that are diametrically opposed. Its supporters claim that it is based on statistics, namely, quarters in a basketball game very rarely go so that they all end with an even or odd total. Regarding the probability of this, figures from 90% to 97% are given.

The strategy algorithm is as follows: We choose a basketball match, basically any one, then place a bet on the total even (or odd) in the first quarter. We watch the broadcast (or just follow the score online). The bet passes - we move on to the next match, if not - we start catching up, doubling the bet amount on even in the second quarter and so on until the “victorious end”.

Let's try the strategy in practice

On March 27, as part of the next NBA game day, 5 meetings took place. Let's consider the action of the strategy using the example of one of them. The screenshot below gives us stats 10 last matches both teams. The sample, of course, is small, but still we observe that 2 matches out of 20 ended with quarters of even or odd total.

Let's say our bank is 6,000 rubles. The bookmaker set odds of 1.9 for the total even.

Let’s choose the “cautious” option: we determine the planned winnings of 20 rubles, so the initial bet

20/(1.9 – 1) = 20/0.9 = 22 rubles, which is 0.33% of the bankroll

If we want the profit to be fixed, then the bet amount must be calculated each time using the formula
S = (L + W)/K – 1, where L is the planned gain, W is the total loss, K is the coefficient.
In order not to strain your brain too much, there is an online calculator for calculations

We place a bet on total even in the first quarter.

The first quarter ended “not in our favor” – 27:22 (odd total). I note that in live the bookmaker lowered the odds on the odd/even total in the quarter to 1.87 - Thus, we place a bet on the 2nd quarter in the amount

(20 + 22)/(1.87 – 1) = 42/0.87 = 48

In the second quarter we get 31:31 (even total).

Our winnings, as we planned, were – 48*1.87 – (22 + 48) = 90 – 70 = 20 rubles

The bankroll we have chosen is designed for 8 iterations, that is, if two selected matches in a row are not played as we expected, a “loss” cannot be avoided. Therefore, for the sake of experiment, we continue the game.

The next two matches (which do not overlap each other in time), in which we repeat playing on even quarters -

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Laker

In the first of them, only the third quarter (27:27) brings an even total.

And finally, in the last match, I must admit, quite quickly, we get 4 odd totals.

Our loss (amount of bets in 4 iterations) – 22 + 48 + 103 + 222 = 395 rubles

We managed to “track” quarters for even four of them. The first quarter of the meeting between the Detroit Pistons and the New York Knicks ends with a score of 36:34, our bet goes through. Profit - 20 rubles.

In the next three matches, using the above calculations, we receive a fixed profit (20 rubles) in the first, second and third steps, respectively. So, for two NBA game days we received an income of 20 * 6 = 120 rubles

This strategy can be modified depending on the player’s “fantasy”.

If the first bet did not work out, for example, even, then the next one is made on odd, etc.
The player enters the game live and only if the first two quarters end on even or odd. He, of course, bets on the opposite result.

Unless, of course, we show miracles of forecasting in comparison with the bookmaker’s team of analysts...

There is a way to influence this alignment. It is based on the change in line from its initial placement until the start of the match.

The player's actions should be as follows: Early in the morning we save the recently set line for basketball (for matches that take place in the evening or at night - NBA). After 10-12 hours we repeat this operation and begin to compare. We see that the line has undergone changes in some positions - somewhere the total went up, somewhere down. These are the matches that interest us. If the gap with the original line is 2 or more points, then players have a chance to have an advantage over the bookmaker.

Let's take a closer look at the example of one of the NBA matches.

In the screenshots we see the initial total from the bookmaker - 229 and before the match - 231. Having entered the additional total list, we find the total 229 and place a bet on TM (229). The coefficient will be 2.19.

Line changes are usually not associated with any exclusive information received by the bookmaker, but solely with the bookmaker’s desire to level cash flows in both directions (this is how the bookmaker makes a profit).

Therefore, the initial total remains the most probable, and we can take advantage of this.

In some cases, when the total changes significantly, it makes sense to analyze last news from the team (for example, just before the match it became known that the best sniper, who brings the lion's share of points to the team, was injured).

The match chosen for example ended with a total of 224, our bet was successful.

Let's define the basic rules of the strategy.

Selecting a bookmaker with the highest odds. This is important, especially at a distance, if you seriously intend to “fight” the bookmaker.
We record the state of the line as early as possible for the matches we are interested in (optimally, immediately after it is placed), preferably at least 10-12 hours before the start of the matches.
The authors of the strategy consider 2 points to be the minimum shift in the line when a match can be considered suitable for our strategy.
We place all bets. In this case, we will have an advantage over the bookmaker at a distance.

Main rule:

If the total increases, we place a bet on TM (from the initial value)

Was 200 → became 204 → set TM (200)

When decreasing, set it to TB (from the original value)

Was 200 → became 197 → set TB (200)

Conclusions.

I think the strategy is worthy of attention. Can be adopted by bettors playing flat. Finding “value” bets requires knowledge and time, and in this case we increase our chances against the bookmaker without spending much effort.

Shchukin's strategy for totals in basketball

The strategy is based on a pre-match analysis of a basketball match and calculation of the probable individual total of both teams based on statistics from the teams’ latest matches and personal meetings. Accordingly, it is assumed that it is possible to correctly guess or calculate the outcome of the match and the overall total.

In short:

We select a match for analysis, not forgetting that we need team statistics.
We calculate the expected total of the 1st team (hosts) using the formula. To do this, we add up the points scored by the team over the last 5-7 games, and divide the resulting amount by the number of matches. Next, we add 1 to the result obtained for a victory and subtract 1.5 for each of the defeats (we take into account last meetings commands). The calculation of the total ends with the addition of three points - the “host bonus”.
We do a similar calculation for the 2nd team, with the exception of adding a “bonus”.
Based on the statistics of personal matches over three years, we calculate the average total of the 1st team in these matches. We add the resulting value to the total obtained in steps 2 and divide by two. We do the same actions for the opposing team. As a result, we get the probable total for each team.
On final stage We compare with the BC line. If the total we received differs from the total set by the bookmaker by more than 5 points, then such a match is suitable for betting. If the total in the line is greater than “ours”, then we bet on TM. Accordingly, if the total in the line is less than “ours”, we bet on TB.

Let's analyze the match analysis using an example:

Let's choose one of the NBA matches
Bookmakers often provide pre-match team statistics.
It is, naturally, incomplete, more detailed information can be found on one of the statistics analysis sites (for example, https://www.sport12x.com/ru/statistics?sport=9&tourn=31). Result of the last 7 matches of the New York Knicks
We make a simple calculation: 98 + 95 + 101 + 105 + 110 + 87 + 112 = 708
708/7 = 101.1
101.1 + 3 = 104.1
104.1 + 1 – 6 *1.5 =105.1 – 9 = 96.1
Results of the last 7 matches of the Detroit Pistons

87 + 95 + 96 + 112 + 75 + 83 + 96 = 644
644/7 = 92
92 + 1 – 6 * 1.5 = 93 – 9 = 84
We calculate the average totals in personal confrontations (10 meetings).

New York Knicks.
92 + 105 + 89 +102 +105 +108 + 90 + 95 (no overtime) + 81 + 95 = 962
962/10 = 96.2
(96.2 + 96.1)/2 = 96.15 Detroit Pistons
112 + 102 + 102 + 89 + 111 + 96 + 112 + 95 (no overtime) + 97 + 98 = 1014
1014/10 = 101.4
(101.4 + 84)/2 = 92.7 So, the estimated team totals are 96 and 93, total 189 points.
The match total set by the bookmaker was 209 points.
Thus, our calculated total differs from the total in the line by 20 points. This is, of course, a lot. It’s time to wonder if there is some kind of catch here... If we come to the conclusion that there is no, then we can safely bet on TM (209).
As a result, the teams scored 204 points, our bet worked

But the forecast itself turned out to be far from reality.

Some features of the strategy.

The strategy requires pre-match analysis (searching for statistical data) and calculations, which makes it a little more difficult to use
As a result of the analysis, we have the estimated score, the individual team total and the overall match total. In my opinion, the latter is the most reliable indicator that you should focus on when choosing a bet.
Critics of the strategy often complain that the analysis is not serious enough (the results that are extreme in totals are not discarded, there is no accounting for home and away games, the strength of the opponent, etc.)

Conclusions.

When talking about the passability of bets using this strategy, a figure of 70% is usually mentioned, which, of course, causes some mistrust. However, everyone can test this system themselves and draw their own conclusions. In my opinion, in the information age, serious mathematicians are developing software systems that can completely “calculate” a match with all its nuances. Therefore, such a strategy, based on very simplified calculations, is useful for bettors, but can hardly serve as the only basis for the game...

Strategy for Total Over or Under based on the results of the first half

This strategy is called differently on the Internet. main idea next. We select a match (preferably several), fix the initial totals. We watch the first half of the meeting (two quarters). We compare the initial total and the current one set by the bookmaker depending on the course of the game. If the difference is 10%, then such matches are suitable for us. If the total has dropped (teams score few goals), then we bet on TB. Otherwise, the total has increased, we bet on TM.

It so happened that I tested this strategy using the example of the already mentioned match between the Detroit Pistons and the New York Knicks. The total before the match was 209.

The teams started the meeting so brilliantly that they managed to score 70 points in the first quarter. The current total reached 227 points and after the first half it stopped at 225.

The difference was 16 points, I bet on TM (225). As can be seen from the following screenshot, the teams scored 204 points between them – the bet was successful.

Another practical example is the NBA match between Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic.

The total after the first half was down 22 points from the original. Following the strategy, we bet on TB(200.5).

The teams played out until overtime, but the total was broken during regular time of the match (204)

What you should pay attention to when playing this system:

Selecting matches. Recommendations on this matter vary – exclusion of youth games, cup finals, and unpredictable “exotic” championships. It is worth agreeing that in comparison with bets on even/odd (where, in principle, any match is suitable), it is better to focus on famous leagues(NBA, Euroleague, etc.)
There are different views on how to assess the magnitude of the total bias when selecting matches for a bet. Above we mentioned 10% (or the first two digits, which is the same). This is a general case, but, in principle, other options can be considered, starting from 5-7 points. Here the player can analyze the situation himself and make a decision.
On the Internet you can find a description of a strategy called “total boom basketball strategy.” It also provides for catch-up in case of failure, which seems quite logical.

More strategies. Briefly

The possibilities of bettors are not limited to the presented strategies.

Another very interesting and attractive area is the “” and “” strategies for totals in basketball, which in some sense can be considered win-win.

Also popular is the strategy for total in a quarter, based on the belief that all four quarters of a team are not playing for TB or TM. It is similar to the even/odd system in the quarter, only in this case it “catch up” with the TB or TM in the quarter.

Basketball total forecast. The role of statistics

Most popular strategies are based on statistics. Various basketball statistics services provide all kinds of information about leagues, teams, and players. The priority, of course, is NBA statistics (for example, https://ru.global.nba.com/statistics/teamstats).

NBA fans are familiar with the impressive scoring records recorded in the world's most popular league.

The maximum number of points scored by both teams in regular time is 320 points (Golden State - Denver, 162:158, 11/02/1990). If you take into account overtime, then 370 points (Detroit - Denver, 186:184 (3 OT), 12/13/1983).

How to predict the total in basketball

Exist different approaches to solving the issue of predictions for the exact total in basketball. We have already discussed some above.

It is definitely worth taking into account the basis (the same as in other sports), but basketball has its own specifics:

Analysis physical fitness players (complex schedule, moving long distances, etc.).
Presence of injured players on both teams. This factor can seriously affect the total. The situation must be monitored almost before the start of the match.
When calculating the total of each team using statistical data, it is worth considering:
- Home field factor (if a team plays at home, then home matches are taken into account).
- Games whose results are not typical for one reason or another for the team being evaluated are discarded.
- Overtime and playoff games are not taken into account when we are talking about the regular season (in knockout games, performance drops).

Possession Ratio Approach

Another interesting approach to analyzing basketball totals will appeal to fans of match statistics. It is based on the ratio of the number of ball possessions of each team and the points scored. You can determine the effectiveness of a team's actions in attack and defense.

If there are 120 points per 100 ball possessions, the attack efficiency is 1.2 points per possession.

To calculate the probable total of a match, you need to correctly predict the number of ball possessions in the match and determine the effectiveness of the teams’ attack.

Basketball also has a well-known scheme for calculating totals for American football. We have already considered its use for European football; for basketball it looks similar, only there it is necessary to use the average total (in relation to a specific league). For example, in the NBA, according to the service https://www.sport12x.com/ru/mathematics/basketbol/ssha_nba, from 2012 to 2017, the average total was 200.45 points.

Review of programs for calculating totals in basketball: tables, calculators

Various mathematical tools for calculating totals in basketball are actively promoted online on a commercial basis. The question of their effectiveness requires separate research. Here I will simply give examples of mathematical tools that bettors use.

Considering Shchukin's strategy for basketball, we performed calculations manually using simple formulas. The next level is automatic calculations based on Excel tables or programs.

A type of simple calculator program for calculations where you need to enter information into a table. Unlike the descriptions of calculating the total according to Shchukin on the Internet, here the sample of matches is limited to six games.

Another option is to calculate directly in an Excel spreadsheet. One of them is called “Analytical program for betting on basketball” and determines the outcome and total of the match.

Here the sample is 10 matches. In the screenshot below we see the results of the calculations.

It is typical for the listed funds that statistical data is entered manually.

Among the more serious programs that independently collect the necessary data, we can highlight the WinBasket program for betting on basketball matches. The program window is divided into several areas. On the left we select the match, after which we observe the team statistics and calculated indicators - scores, totals, odds. According to the authors of this program, it analyzes matches according to three schemes at once:

Shchukin system
Outcome/Match system
NBA fly system

Algorithms, programs, models based on statistical analysis and probability theories are used by all participants in the betting market (bookmakers, players, cappers). On the relevant forums you can find discussions about Markov chains and the Kolmogorov–Champen equation. However, I am convinced that all this is only one means to achieve the goal, and the data produced by these programs cannot be taken as a 100% forecast of the upcoming event.

Summing up

Assessing the prospects for totals in basketball for betting, I can say the following. Basketball is not a priority sport for me. However, when I became more familiar with this area of betting, I discovered quite a lot of interesting opportunities. It is basketball that seems to me a convenient “battlefield” with a bookmaker when using various strategies related to line changes, live bets, middles and sure bets.

Basketball betting is attractive due to its frequent events. Teams do not require as much rest as in football, so many matches take place every day.

Betting on basketball without a strategy is dangerous. Let's look at a popular betting strategy called quarter win (also called quarter betting).

Open a tournament, select a match that has just begun, and bet on the underdog to win in the first quarter (quotes in the range of 2.0-7.0).

Follow the progress of the game. If the team does not win, double the bet for the second quarter (use catch-up). The cycle continues until the underdog wins in the 3rd or 4th period.

Let's check the system in practice. Let's take the results of several meetings. Out of 20 fights, the strategy would have brought profit in 17, which is not bad (only 7 events fit in the screenshot).

Quotes for outsiders ranged from 2.0 to 4.5, but that is not what interests us. In three games, the favorite won or tied in all periods. In such matches, with the first bet of 100 rubles, we would have lost 1500 rubles (100+200+400+800). Let's figure out why this happened.

The second game on the list is a meeting between a clear favorite and an outsider. The odds for win 1 were 1.04, and for win 2 – 8.75. In the remaining matches that did not take place, the situation is identical. Therefore, ignore confrontations between teams whose levels are significantly different.

Matches that are not suitable for strategy

We realized that fights where there is a clear outsider are discarded (winning odds are more than 7.0). Let's consider other criteria, the fulfillment of which will increase the passability of bets on the strategy:

Weak competitions are not suitable, for example, the Philippine or Malaysian championship. Bet in large tournaments where the level of the first and last team is minimal;
exclude women's competitions - they are unpredictable, and in women's basketball there is a more significant difference in the class of opponents.

What to do when the underdog loses all quarters

If the game bank stock is sufficient, continue the series of bets in the team's next game. Be careful and don’t rush to recoup when the team is up against the championship leader.

Accepting losing is the safe option. If you started with a bet of 1% of your bankroll, then in 4 trades you will lose 15%. Don't double your bet all the time. For example, when the odds are 3.0, after 100 rubles, bet not 200, but 150. In any case, you will earn, but less, but you will minimize the possible minus.

Advantages and disadvantages of the strategy

The advantages of the “win in the quarter” strategy include high chances of winning and a variety of events. The probability of losing in all quarters does not exceed 10%, that is, 1 match out of 10. Conduct analysis and discard events based on information, not just bookmaker odds.

Lack of Strategy– progressive betting system (increasing the amount after a defeat). If a successful cycle brings 1-2% to the bank, then a loss will take away at least 10%. The bookmaker's commission is minimal, because the quotes do not include a draw. It’s like “red and black” - it seems to be 50/50, but you might end up with a zero.

Strategy to catch up by quarters

Betting strategy for the 3rd quarter

Surely you have thought about how many people really bet on quarters, since they are difficult to predict, etc. It turns out that quite a lot of bettors make this kind of predictions both in the mode before the start of the match and in the live branch, i.e. online when the match is already in progress.

What guides cappers when choosing a match and forecast, what do they study and what are the most popular outcomes that they prefer to take into their transactions with bookmakers? You will learn about this from this article.

So, one of the most popular strategies is to bet on the underdog to win the quarter. We choose odds in the range of 2.5-7, and we expect that at least one quarter will remain with the winner. You need to place the bet using the “catch-up” system. For example, for the first quarter - 100 rubles, for the second (if the first one loses) we multiply it twice - 200 rubles, if the second one loses - we raise the third bet twice again - 400 rubles. Well, if she doesn’t come in, we make a fourth bet of 800 rubles. In most cases, the weaker team in basketball wins at least one quarter. However, there are also losses in all four quarters. Then we continue to multiply on the next match. It is important to analyze the games of outsiders and look at statistics.

The screenshot shows 7 random line match results for the day, and in 6 out of 7 matches the underdog won 1 quarter.

Betting strategy for quarter totals

Another popular bet is quarter total over or under, and even or odd. Let's first look at the forecasts for TB and TM in the quarter. We can follow the same tactics that were described above to win the outsider by “catching up”. We choose more or less and bet, multiplying the bet until it goes well and in the end we remain in the black. The downside to this tactic is that you need to have a decent bank. Because there are unsuccessful series, when only on the 6th or 7th bet you manage to win. However, if after 5 bets you cannot bet the sixth with multiplication, you will lose a decent amount.

Now let’s look at transactions for “even” and “odd” in quarters. Professional players who often play with this type of bet have developed some tactics. We are waiting for the moment when there are two minutes left until the end of the current quarter, and if the result is still even, we bet on even. Explanation of this choice: in the remaining two minutes, teams will be able to carry out 6 attacks on average (20 seconds per attack). Few people will risk shooting three-pointers, especially if the teams are neck-and-neck. And free throws are thrown very carefully, so Great chance that he will score two goals from free throws.

Strategy to catch up by quarters

We have already touched upon the strategy of “catching up” in bets on quarters earlier in the article. Now let's talk in more detail about choosing matches where it is best to use it. Many professional bettors suggest selecting 8-10 matches in a line in the morning and writing down what totals are bet on the quarters in each of them. Well, then we wait until there is an hour left before the start of the meeting and compare the odds. Where the value has changed by several points “+” (for example, the total was 35, but now it’s 37-38), we put it on TM everywhere. And if the total for each quarter decreased by 2-3 points, we flirt with TB. Why is that? This is most likely the bookmakers trying to equalize the amount of money bet on both sides of the total.

We initially bet on the first quarter, if the deal loses, we multiply it by 2 times and bet further. The entire “catch-up” system has already been described above, and based on the numerical values of the bets in the example, you can get your bearings and understand how much you should bet. As soon as the bet has been played, you start your journey over again and place the minimum bet.

Betting strategy for the 3rd quarter

What's so good about betting on the third quarter? The thing is that such forecasts are made in most cases live. And the captain already sees the picture of the match, how the two quarters were played before the break. Based on this data, you can analyze how the teams will behave, run forward and throw a lot of shots, or they will dry up the game a little. And you will already know the arithmetic mean from the quarters played.

Therefore, you need to analyze the playing style of the leading team. If it is more defensive, and this team managed to take a lead in half the game, wait - TM. If the situation on the floor is such that the favorite is losing, expect a powerful attack on the opponent’s ring and an active game of shots. And this is most of all TB.

In general, it is very correct to place bets during the break, when you have seen half of the match, you can analyze the statistical data and make your prediction based on them. It's about not only about over/under totals, but also about handicaps, W1/W2 outcomes, and other types of bets.