Betting strategy against favorites in live. Tennis strategy “Betting on outsiders Strategies for betting on the underdog

Fans of tennis bets know about the so-called “underdog factor”. We are talking about playing tennis players with lower ratings against favorites. “Bookmaker Rating” has translated an article from the Pinnacle Sports blog, which explains why the rating is worth paying attention to.

What is the “outsider factor”?

As practice shows, players who are not very high in the rankings often have great difficulty in some matches. Or some segments in individual matches. As a rule, these are matches against more sophisticated opponents.

We are mainly talking about match point or set point situations. Some players simply cannot believe that they can win that point and win the set or match.

Studies have shown that decisive serves and points are much more difficult for average players in matches against favorites than all other plays and serves. On the other hand, when they manage to win the coveted point, it becomes one of the most memorable events in their life. And those who like to bet will remember this result for a long time.

And it is logical to think that the pressure on a tennis player increases depending on what position his opponent is in the ranking. For example, Nicha Letpichaksinchai (ranking number 347) beat Alexandra Krunic (153) at a recent tournament in Pattaya. The odds for this event were 7.19. But for her this victory will be completely different from that for Luksika Kumkhum (88) at the same competition, when she managed to defeat Petra Kvitova (6). This result was estimated at a coefficient of 11.15. Despite the fact that Letpichaksinchai is ranked lower than Kumkhum, and the difference in rating between her and her opponent is greater. than Luksika and Petra, it was Kumkhum who felt more pressure. After all, unlike her compatriot, she was up against a better opponent.

Now let's look at the cases in which tennis players, marked by bookmakers as outsiders, won their matches. For the following calculations, tennis players were selected whose winning odds this season were from 5.00. £100 was bet on each of them.

ATP

As you can see, on the ATP tour, if an outsider faces an opponent from the top 20 in the world ranking, then the chances of winning are much less than if the favorite ranks below 20th.

The most unexpected victory in the case of tennis players from the top 20 happened in the match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Juan Martin Del Potro (odds - 13.03). Don't forget that these calculations included Stanislas Wawrinka, who beat first Novak Djokovic and then Rafael Nadal on the way to his Australian Open title.

Two more victories were given to outsiders by David Ferrer, who lost in 2014 to Daniel Brands (6.13) and Lu Yanxun (5.66).

WTA

This table shows that the situation on the WTA tour is more or less similar. Underdogs do not perform the best in meetings against opponents from the top 20 in the best possible way. Here, too, there are often negative results. The most unexpected victory for an outsider here was the result of the Kumkhum - Kvitova match. This season, the Czech tennis player also lost to Bulgarian Tsvetana Pironkova (6.83), and Letpichaksinchai’s aforementioned victory was the most unexpected for outsiders in a meeting with tennis players from outside the top 20.

If we draw analogies with Wawrinka, then it is worth noting Ana Ivanovic, who beat Serena Williams (9.75), as well as Agnieszka Radwanska, who sent home Victoria Azarenka (5.16).

Young players

The research we reviewed suggests that in the WTA, underdogs have a better chance of beating a higher-ranked favorite. But one more factor is not taken into account here. Young stars appear much more often in women's tennis than in men's tennis.

There are only six tennis players in the top 100 of the ATP tour whose age is under 23 years old. The most famous of them is Grigor Dimitrov (22 years old). By the way, he is the only tennis player in the top 50 under 23 years of age. And 99th place is occupied by the young Austrian Dominic Thiem, who only recently broke into the top hundred.

For comparison, on the WTA tour, 29 tennis players who have not yet celebrated their 23rd birthday are in the top 100. Above all of them in the ranking is the fifth racket of the world, Simona Halep. And there are nine such players in the top 50 ratings.

This suggests that in women's tennis there are more talented youth than in men's. Accordingly, young talents can often produce unexpected results when breaking into the top hundred.

ATP/WTA

The final table provides summary data for the ATP and WTA. As you can see, if we take the situation in tennis as a whole, without dividing the sport into men's and women's, it is still more difficult for outsiders to play against opponents from the top 20 in the world ranking than against everyone else. And you should pay attention to this when betting on tennis.

The theory of profitability of betting on an underdog in European football has been refuted. Let's bet on the favorites!

Many players believe that betting on underdogs in football is very profitable. At the same time, they are guided and proceed from the fact that losses here are inevitable - because as an outsider, he is also an outsider in Africa (from the English outsider - outsider; can also be used as: non-specialist, amateur, lagging behind). But considering that sooner or later the last one wins, and the odds for victory are quite high, all costs are recouped and in the end the player ends up with a “win”...

However, more recently, Casino Games magazine conducted its own research, which completely refutes this point of view. And even vice versa – it clearly proves that it is bets on favorites that can give players a stable income.

When setting lines and determining odds for sports matches, bookmakers make every effort: a large staff of employees, a huge statistical base, etc. are involved. Any bookmaker’s office is created for the purpose of making money, and the welfare of the office depends on the odds set.

But this does not mean that bookmakers set odds that reflect the real probabilities of the outcome of a particular sporting event. Their goal, as we previously mentioned, is maximum income, not display accurate forecast match in the form of set odds. At the same time, in addition to the simple probability of the outcome of the match, bookmakers take into account many other factors, incl. – risk factor. This is why, if we take, say, two absolutely equal teams in terms of playing strength, they will only in theory have equal odds, but in practice, each bookmaker will have its own forecast and, accordingly, its own proposed odds.

In the bookmaker market, the income included in the odds that bookmakers receive is on average 12%. However, for each type of bet this profit is distributed differently. According to statistics, when betting on the home team, the bookmaker’s profit is about 10%, and in the case of guests, this figure is 15%. This clearly shows that betting on the home team is much more profitable.

At the same time, analysts and experts in this field believe that outsiders are overvalued for one reason or another and the odds for them are often overstated by bookmakers. That is why bettors betting on outsiders just need to patiently wait for their underdog player/team to win. And those players who bet on clear favorites, according to expert theory, will definitely face collapse and bankruptcy soon.

But statistics show the opposite. According to statistics, the higher the odds on a sporting event, the greater the profit the bookmaker makes. If the odds for an event are 1.15, if you win, the bookmaker’s profit will be purely symbolic. But with the existing odds of 10, the bookmaker’s office will have more than 50% of the net income! Now compare with the average 12%...

Thus, a logical conclusion suggests itself: by constantly betting on the favorites, at a minimum, the player must remain “within his own.”

Publication date 11.11.2009

There is no news on the topic

Let's consider the strategy of betting on the victory of an outsider, proven by many players in bookmakers. If you're following sporting events, you know that there is no favorite who has not lost to a weaker team at least once. In this regard, bets using this system can be quite profitable with the right approach, taking into account all the subtleties.

Pros and cons of betting on outsiders

The strategy of betting on an underdog in football has one important advantage and disadvantage. A plus is always a high odds, which allows you to earn a significant amount at a time, so one single bet against the favorites may turn out to be better than several bets with low odds.

Negative side lies in the instability of bets, since the favorites win much more often, but sometimes suffer an unexpected defeat from the club from the bottom of the table.

Features of betting on outsiders

Many players at bookmakers bet on favorites and there is nothing strange in this, since before the start of the match they have more chances to win. Only a few people successfully play the strategy of betting on the underdog in football, earning large sums of money. This system It is notable for the fact that to make a profit at a distance, it is necessary for the forecasts to be correct in 20-25 percent of cases.

Bettors who use this tactic do not bet on all outsiders. It is necessary to carefully analyze the bookmaker's line to find an event in which the chances of a sensational victory for a weak team are high.

It is important to learn how to assess the level of motivation of two teams - this important point, since sometimes favorite teams, after a series of victories in the championship, which provides them with an early victory, finish the tournament without much enthusiasm. The outsider does everything possible to win so as not to end up in the lower division.

How to choose who to bet on

A good example of high motivation for a weak team is matches such as derbies. London teams like West Ham or Fulham are looking to beat leaders like Chelsea or Arsenal. This good chance use a betting strategy for the underdog to win.

You can bet after games of national teams and European cups. In the latter case, the favorites play tired and with poor motivation. The odds for outsiders can reach 8-9 units.

Most players bet on the favorites of the match. Outsiders are most often not considered in principle as likely candidates for victory. Occasionally, bets are still placed on them - with a solid plus handicap. At the same time, betting on outsiders has one big advantage: there is no need to constantly win in order to receive. With an average coefficient sports betting 4.00 is enough for at least a third of the bets to win. The main thing is to find suitable events and work with probabilities correctly.

When can you bet on outsiders?

When planning a bet, you need to study the features of each individual match. There are several cases where betting on outsiders is justified.

The first thing a player must do is choose a tournament where they can bet on underdogs. Most of Sensational victories happen in matches of the English Premier League or the Champions League. The British Championship has a tough tournament schedule that coincides with European Cup matches. Because of this, coaches undertake serious rotation. In the Champions League huge role Finance plays a role: each victory in the tournament brings the club a substantial amount of euros.

To bet on outsiders, it is worth having accounts in several offices. Differences in odds in different bookmakers can be 3 or more points. This applies not only football matches, but also hockey and other group sports disciplines. For example, in the CSKA – Admiral match, which took place within the KHL, various bookmakers offered to bet on Admiral’s victory at odds of 4.00 – 8.00. The Admiral won for a number of reasons: underestimation of the opponent, lack of frantic motivation (second place in the standings against a team from the bottom of the list), and a solid history of personal meetings.

Against the favorites. Indeed, unexpected results very often happen in tennis, when a seemingly clear favorite loses a match to a less rated and famous opponent.

In most cases, such unexpected results occur on the Women's WTA Tour. For men in the ATP, unexpected match outcomes are also not uncommon, but for women this happens much more often. Perhaps this is due to the less stable mental and emotional state of tennis players, when at a critical moment they cannot pull themselves together or simply lose their nerves.

It is best to bet on outsiders in less prestigious tournaments, where the favorites are not so highly motivated. Tournaments category " Grand Slam" or "Masters" is better not to use for this strategy. At such competitions, all players, as a rule, have extreme motivation, since very substantial prize money and a large number of rating points.

So, how to identify such matches in which it makes sense to bet on the outsider.

Favorite motivation

You need to know how motivated the favorite is to perform in the tournament. To do this, it is necessary to take into account prize fund tournament, the number of rating points being played out, as well as how well the favorite performed last time in this tournament (if he took part in it). For example, if he won a tournament last season, then he will have good motivation in current season– we have to defend last year’s points.

Statistics of personal meetings

It’s worth taking into account the statistics of your opponents’ head-to-head matches. In tennis, it is not uncommon for high-level players to have inconvenient, lower-rated opponents. Statistics of head-to-head matches just reflect how inconvenient one or another player is for another.

Court surface

For some players there is a big difference, on what surface to perform. For some, hard is convenient, for others - clay. Some people like to play on the grass. And these features must be taken into account. Some bookmakers sometimes set odds that are not entirely correct, relying only on the rating and not taking into account individual characteristics players.

Game state of opponents

It is also worth analyzing the current form of tennis players. You can determine it by looking at the recent results of the players you meet and the statistics of these matches. For example, if the favorite in the last game defeated the opponent with great difficulty, and the outsider won the last match very confidently, then this event is worth taking a closer look at. And again, you need to keep in mind what level the opponents were.

Using this strategy, it is not necessary to bet on outright victories of outsiders. You can also choose positive odds – the odds will be smaller, but the possibility of winning will increase.