Market trends for heating boilers in Russia. Marketing research of the heating equipment market in the Russian Federation
The volume of the PGO market has a pronounced seasonality. The market capacity changes twice, increasing during the peak of seasonal demand (August - October) to 170-175 million rubles per month, and falling in the spring (March-April) to 85-90 million rubles per month. At the same time, there is a tendency towards constant growth throughout recent years the market is growing by about 13-18% per year. Characteristic feature market is a small number of large end consumers. The volume of the average order (“average check”) is 50-60 thousand rubles, which corresponds to 1500-1700 transactions per month in April-May and 2800-3400 in September-October. It should be noted that there was a sharp decrease in the size of the average application in February-March to 25-30 thousand rubles. This is due to the fact that during this period equipment for new construction, as a rule, is not purchased. Only individual units of equipment are purchased for reconstruction (replacement) of existing equipment.
PGO is heterogeneous: the market consists of several segments that practically do not compete with each other. Competition occurs within these segments among substitute products produced by different manufacturers. On average (there are differences between segments), the product reaches the final buyer through a chain of 2 intermediaries. About 18-20% of all manufactured equipment is sold directly from factories to end consumers without intermediaries. This allows us to conclude about great importance for the market of trading organizations, since the main volume of purchase and sale transactions is carried out by them. It should be noted that we are talking about averaged data; for some manufacturers the situation is different.
For example, the sales system of the Slava and Nadezhda - Gas plant, which produces gas-propelled gas pumps*, is aimed at establishing direct contacts with end consumers, bypassing intermediaries. The advertising campaign is aimed at creating a positive image of the company in the business community, strengthening brand awareness, and popularizing manufactured products among consumers. Currently, the sales volume of "SIN-gas" among competitors producing gas-propelled grenade launchers is small - about 1%. However, due to the fact that the plant takes on the production of any, even the most non-standard, orders, it is likely that its market share will increase.
At the enterprise "Center" innovative technologies", which produces gas control systems, from 90 to 100% of its products are purchased by intermediaries. This is due to the ongoing sales policy, as well as the low awareness of the manufacturer’s name to end consumers. The product mainly advertised is the SAKZ automatic gas control system. Since competitors do not produce products with the same name, all orders through one or another chain of intermediaries are placed directly with the manufacturer. There is a danger here: if any competitor appears and uses this name for its product, the company's share of the security systems market (currently about 25%) will be instantly “eroded.” As practice shows, the current legislation is not able to effectively regulate issues of copyright and related rights, which makes it impossible (or very difficult) to defend one’s legitimate interests in the event of such situations.
The Signal plant (Engels) began serial production of gas-propelled guns in the fall of 2002. Until this time, Signal produced only regulators, and GRPS produced Radon. However, "Signal" is enough for a long time sold them under his own brand. The vast majority of consumers did not even realize that GRPG was produced by another plant. When Signal opened its own production, it began producing the same GRPG under the same brand. After Signal launched mass production of GRPS, it dragged Radon into a price war that lasted from November 2002 to February 2003. All of these actions helped Signal in short terms change the balance of power among manufacturers and capture about 10% of the GRPG market. Today, the GRPS produced by Radon and Signal are the most popular on the market, and their price is the most acceptable for the consumer.
Often consumers are unable to reap the benefits of such competition. The situation with the “Center for Innovative Technologies”, described above, is exactly one of those when competition does not reach the consumer. It is almost complete already at the design stage: the product that the designer included in the project has a very strong advantage over substitutes. Often the person responsible for the packaging does not even suspect the presence of substitute goods that have a different name. The factory that produces any product can also, in very rare cases, provide information of this kind. There are two reasons for this. The first is banal: this will result in indirect advertising of a competitor with redirection of the customer, which no self-respecting manufacturer can allow. The second reason is not so simple. According to marketing research conducted by the independent research center Miromark, public opinion puts the technical training of personnel at PGO manufacturing plants significantly higher than the training of personnel of trading organizations. In practice, the training of management personnel at factories and resellers is approximately the same, and the literacy of ordinary engineers, as the study showed, directly depends on the salary they receive. But during the study it turned out important detail: All employees tested for technical competence can only demonstrate it in relation to the equipment with which they regularly deal. And this is where the lack of a broad outlook among manufacturers is reflected. Since, when performing their usual range of duties, factory workers, as a rule, are faced only with the products of their own plant, they often simply do not know anything about the products manufactured by competitors. An interesting thing has been revealed: only 20% of PGO manufacturers are interested in the developments of competitors! If in European countries Since the program for monitoring competitors (industrial espionage) is a vital part of the marketing activities of enterprises, the absence of fierce competition in Russia gives manufacturers the opportunity not to engage in this area of activity at all. This looks especially strange in a segment where competition is present and takes quite tough forms. It's about about the production of GRPS.
Although GRPSh is currently produced in Russia a large number There are not so many manufacturers and serious players in this market. There are the following approaches to the production of GRPG: vertical production - when the plant completely manufactures all the equipment and all fittings included in the product, and assembly production - when equipment and fittings are purchased from other manufacturers. Combined production - when part of the equipment is produced independently, part is purchased externally - is not currently practiced. Today, a vertical approach to the production of gas-propelled grenade launchers has been implemented at the Signal, Gazapparat and Gazprommash plants. It is also used by the Saratov enterprise Ex-Forma, producing small batches of promising UGRSH-50 cabinet units with a direct-flow RDP regulator.
The vertical approach to production has a significant advantage: independence from subcontractors. All other Russian manufacturers practice assembly production, the main advantage of which is the ability to focus on one operation: installation of technological equipment in a cabinet. The undoubted leader in assembly production is Radon, Engels. All other manufacturers either operate in local markets, or the volume of products they produce does not have a significant impact on the Russian market. However, within the local market, the position of such a regional manufacturer can be very strong (Gazkomplekt, Reutov, Kambarsky Gas Equipment Plant, etc.).
The graphs show the prices prevailing in April 2003 for the most popular GRPSh model - with the RDNK 400-01 regulator or an analogue. Several comments should be made immediately to the above graphs.
Saratov should certainly be recognized as a recognized center for the production of industrial gas equipment. In Saratov and Engels (satellite cities), according to different estimates, produces from 67 to 75% of all equipment produced in the country. Average price GRPSh 400-01 - from 17 to 18 thousand rubles. High price GRPSh of the Gazprommash plant is due to the fact that it works primarily on regional markets, in particular, all Tyumen companies (Angor, Gazstroyinter and Mezhregiongazstroy) offer cabinets manufactured by Gazprommash. This cabinet is produced both with a standard RDNK-400 regulator produced by Signal, and with a regulator produced by Gazprommash RDNK 50/400, which has a slightly lower throughput. The relatively low price of GRPS made at the Gazooborudovanie plant, Kazan, is due to the low popularity of this manufacturer and the lower cost of the materials used by the plant for production. Despite this, the price/quality ratios of these products are quite acceptable, which is confirmed by the steady growth in sales volumes. Trading organizations in Kazan, shown in the graphs (“Komtekhenergo”, “Tatgazselkomplekt”), offer the products of this plant. All trading enterprises in Saratov, the South of Russia (Krasnodar, Rostov-on-Don, Stavropol) and Ufa offer mainly products manufactured by Radon-Signal. Their price depends on discounts received at the plant, transportation costs and the appetites of company management. Competition can sometimes lead to significant savings opportunities for the consumer, as we see in the example of Krasnodar, where the price of Kubankraigazservice is 40% higher than the price of Tsentrgazservice (7,000 rubles).
The question arises: why is there such a range of prices within the same city? The answer to this is not as obvious as it seems. There is no doubt that lack of consumer awareness plays a big role. But main reason another. At present, neither in Krasnodar nor in Russia there is yet a civilized VGO market - it is just being created. Competition in a number of market segments is weak or completely absent. It is competition that forces manufacturers to produce cheaper, more convenient to maintain, higher quality equipment, which ultimately leads to a reduction in emergency situations. There are only a few normally operating suppliers, mostly manufacturers. At the same time, most existing manufacturers are focused on production rather than working with consumers. A good supplier must be multi-vendor, that is, support and offer equipment from various manufacturers on the market. This must be a trading company - manufacturing plants do not sell competitors' products. Already today, large trading companies, as a rule, offer consumers services of more high quality than manufacturers. We are glad that, together with our parent company - the Gas-Service enterprise, Saratov (Trademark "Gazovik") - we are taking steps towards building a civilized market for industrial gas equipment in Russia.
* Gas control points (installations) are a set of technological equipment and devices designed to reduce the inlet gas pressure to a given level and maintain it constant at the outlet. Depending on the placement of the equipment, gas control points are divided into several types: GRPS (cabinet gas control point) - the equipment is placed in a metal cabinet; GRU (gas control unit) - the equipment is mounted on a metal frame; PGB (block gas control point) - the equipment is installed in one or more container-type buildings. For convenience, all gas control points (installations) described above are referred to in this article as GRPS. However, it should be borne in mind that, as a rule, almost all manufacturers produce both GRPSh, GRU, and PGB with the same technological equipment.
Resume Marketing research contains up-to-date information on the state and prospects of the Russian boiler market central heating in 2017.
During the study, the following blocks of questions were considered: the volume and dynamics of domestic production, foreign trade operations, sales of central heating boilers and producer prices. The characteristics of the current market conditions are given and a forecast of its development for the medium term is constructed. Particular emphasis is placed on factors that have a significant impact on the state of the industry - its drivers and stop factors.
A separate section of the extended version of the study includes a competitive analysis of the largest participants in the central heating boiler market: manufacturers, exporters, importers and trading companies. In this block, for each of the companies considered (where possible), data on production volume and/or import/export, market share, promising projects is indicated, as well as background information from the official financial statements(company card, balance sheet, profit and loss statement, etc.).
Product group considered in the report: Central heating water boilers
Geography of research: Russia
Period: statistical data from 2013 to 2017, forecast until 2025.
The research will help you answer the questions:
How the production volume of central heating boilers changed at the end of 2017
What is the presence of foreign products on the Russian market?
Which regions dominate in production and consumption?
Who are the main producers on the Russian market?
How the price level on the market has changed
How the market will change in the medium term
Research methodology:
Collection of materials from open sources
Processing and analysis of secondary market information
Analysis of materials received from central heating boiler market participants
Study of financial and economic activities of market participants
Desk work of IndexBox specialists
Expert survey of market participants (only for the extended version of the report)
List of companies mentioned in the report:
LEMAKS LLC, Rostovgazoapparat JSC, SARENERGOMASH OJSC, BaltGaz Group (Gazapparat plant St. Petersburg, Armavir Gas Equipment Plant), EZOT Signal LLC, Izhevsk Boiler Plant LLC, Kovrov Boilers LLC "
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3. CLASSIFICATION OF CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS
4. MARKET FOR CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS IN THE RF
4.1. Volume of apparent consumption in 2013-2017 Forecast for 2017-2025
4.2. Market structure: production, export, import, consumption
4.3. Consumption structure by federal districts in 2013-2017
4.4. Balance of production and consumption
4.5 Average per capita consumption in 2013-2017
5. PRODUCTION OF CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS IN THE RF
5.1. Production volume in 2013-2017
5.2. Structure of production by federal districts in 2013-2017
5.3. Investment projects in the industry until 2025
6. PRICES ON THE MARKET FOR CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS IN THE RF
6.1. Average producer prices in 2013-2017
6.2. Average export price in 2013-2017
6.3. Average import price in 2013-2017
7. FOREIGN TRADE OPERATIONS ON THE MARKET OF CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS IN 2013 - 2017
7.1. Volumes of foreign trade transactions in 2013-2017
7.2. Trade balance in 2013-2017
8. IMPORT OF CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS INTO THE RF
8.1. Import volume of central heating boilers in 2013-2017
8.2. Producing countries with leading supplies to the Russian Federation in 2017
9. EXPORT OF CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS FROM RUSSIA
9.1. Export volume of central heating boilers in 2013-2017
9.2. Recipient countries of Russian exports of central heating boilers in 2017
10. FORECAST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKET FOR CENTRAL HEATING BOILERS
10.1. Factors influencing market development
10.2. Scenarios for the development of the Russian economy
10.3. Scenarios for the development of the central heating boiler market until 2025
APPENDIX: COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF KEY MARKET PARTS (extended version only)
11.1. Russian manufacturers and their production volumes and market shares in 2017
11.2. Russian exporters and their export volumes in 2017
11.3. Foreign manufacturers and their volumes of supplies to the Russian Federation in 2017
11.4. Russian importers and their supply volumes in 2017
11.5. Comparative competitive analysis of key players in the market
11.6. Profiles of leading market participants
List of tables Table 1. Key indicators in the central heating boiler market in 2013 - 2017
Table 2. Classification of central heating boilers according to OKPD
Table 3. Classification of central heating boilers according to HS
Table 4. Volume and dynamics of the central heating boiler market in 2013-2017 and forecast until 2025 (within the base development scenario)
Table 5. Balance of production and consumption in the market of central heating boilers in 2013-2017. and forecast until 2025
Table 6. Production of central heating boilers in 2013-2017,
Table 7. Production volume of central heating boilers by type in 2013–2017.
Table 8. Production of central heating boilers by federal districts in 2013 – 2017
Table 9. Investment projects in the industry in 2017-2025
Table 10. Average prices of manufacturers of central heating boilers in the Russian Federation in 2013 - 2017.
Table 11. Volume of imports of central heating boilers by country of origin in 2017, units. change
Table 12. Import volume of central heating boilers by country of origin in 2017, thousand US dollars
Table 13. Volume of Russian exports of central heating boilers by country of receipt in 2017, units. change
Table 14. Volume of Russian exports of central heating boilers by country of receipt in 2017, thousand US dollars
Table 15. Dynamics of the resident population 2010-2017, million people
APPLICATION
Table 1. Structure of production of central heating boilers by manufacturing companies in 2017 V in kind and as a percentage of total production in the Russian Federation
Table 2. Volume of Russian exports of central heating boilers by manufacturing companies in 2017 in physical terms
Table 3. Volume of Russian exports of central heating boilers by manufacturing companies in 2017 in value terms
Table 4. Volume of imports of central heating boilers by manufacturing companies in 2017 in physical terms
Table 5. Import volume of central heating boilers by manufacturing companies in 2017 in value terms
Table 6. Volume of imports of central heating boilers in the Russian Federation by recipient companies in 2017 in physical terms
Table 7. Volume of imports of central heating boilers in the Russian Federation by recipient companies in 2017 in value terms
Table 8. Comparative competitive analysis of key players in the market
List of drawings Figure 1. Volume and dynamics of apparent consumption of central heating boilers in 2013-2017. in physical terms and forecast until 2025 (within the base development scenario)
Figure 2. Volume of apparent consumption of central heating boilers in value terms 2013-2017. and forecast until 2025 (within the base development scenario)
Figure 3. Dynamics and structure of the central heating boiler market in 2013-2017.
Figure 4. Market structure of central heating boilers by origin in 2017
Figure 5. Consumption structure by federal districts in 2013-2017
Figure 6. Dynamics of average per capita consumption of central heating boilers in 2013-2017.
Figure 7. Annual production of central heating boilers in 2013 - 2017.
Figure 8. Production of central heating boilers in 2015 - 2017 by month
Figure 9. Structure of production of central heating boilers in 2017 by type in physical and value terms
Figure 10. Structure of production of central heating boilers by federal districts in 2013-2017, in physical terms
Figure 11. Average import prices in 2013-2017.
Figure 12. Average export prices in 2013-2017
Figure 13. Comparison of average prices of manufacturers of central heating boilers by federal district in 2017
Figure 14. Annual dynamics of imports of central heating boilers in the Russian Federation in 2013-2017.
Figure 15. Annual dynamics of Russian exports of central heating boilers in 2013-2017.
Figure 16. Volume of foreign trade transactions in the central heating boiler market in 2013-2017.
Figure 17. Trade balance in 2013-2017
Figure 18. Structure of imports of central heating boilers in the Russian Federation by country of origin in 2017, in physical and value terms
Figure 19. Structure of exports of central heating boilers by country of origin in 2017, in volume and value terms
Figure 20. Structure of Russian exports of central heating boilers by country of receipt in 2017, in physical and value terms
Figure 21. Dynamics of the physical volume of GDP in market prices in the Russian Federation in 2010 - 2017, as a percentage of the previous year
Figure 22. Dynamics of real disposable cash income of the population in the Russian Federation 2013-2017, as a percentage of the previous year of the previous year
Figure 23. Dynamics of nominal and real wages population of the Russian Federation in 2010 – 2017
Figure 24. Structure of the population of the Russian Federation by income level in 2017, as a percentage of the total
Figure 25. Dynamics of nominal and real turnover retail in the Russian Federation in 2010 – 2017, billion rubles.
Figure 26. Structure of retail trade turnover by type of product in 2010 – 2017, in value terms
Figure 27. Forecast of consumption of central heating boilers in the Russian Federation in physical terms within the framework of the base scenario in 2017-2025.
Figure 28. Forecast of consumption of central heating boilers in the Russian Federation in physical terms under the optimistic scenario in 2017-2025.
APPLICATION
Figure 1. Structure of production of central heating boilers by manufacturer in 2017 in % of total production in the Russian Federation
Figure 2. Market structure of central heating boilers by key players in 2017
The opposite trend is observed for, whose popularity by this winter has decreased by more than 3 times compared to 2014-2015. By the way, it was electric fireplaces that were the leaders in demand in the winter of 2013-2014! The dynamics are similar for water heaters: a slight rise in 2014-2015, and then a protracted decline.
It should be noted that this winter the popularity of energy-efficient solutions has increased, among which, from the Top 30 of our catalog, we included the already mentioned Thermal accumulators, indirect heating and Electric.
Demand analysis by major cities
We calculated the Top 15 cities by the number of visits of their residents to the equipment catalog of the portal website. The picture turned out to be interesting. Firstly, 13 out of 15 “top” cities have increased their interest in heating technology. Only St. Petersburg and Samara showed a decrease. Interestingly, Minsk entered the Top 15, ahead of many Russian cities with a population of over a million. Note that the number of entries into the equipment catalog from Moscow is almost twice as high as this value for St. Petersburg, which, in turn, is 1.5 times faster than Krasnodar.
By the way, we did not take into account arrivals from the Moscow and Leningrad regions, otherwise this gap would have been even more noticeable.
Still total number visits to the catalog are not as indicative as interest in individual categories of equipment by city. We decided to analyze the demand for heating boilers in different cities. To begin with, we made a summary diagram of demand for the 6 most popular categories of boilers over the last two winters.
Understanding the main drivers and market trends allows you to correctly allocate the company's resources, which is necessary to form a long-term sales strategy and business development. Let's look at the dynamics of sales of gas boilers in Russia from 2008 to 2015.
The gas boiler market grew steadily until 2014, with the exception of short-term declines in 2009-2013. If the decline in 2009 was a consequence of the global financial crisis, then the fall in 2013 was a consequence of political and financial problems directly in Russia, whose economy was on the verge of recession.
The positive indicators of 2014 are not associated with positive processes; on the contrary, the sharp weakening of the Russian ruble, caused by the rapid decline in world oil prices, led to inflation. The population, remembering past crises, got rid of the depreciating national currency and massively bought everything that could be needed in the foreseeable future, including boilers. It was this fact that influenced the data in 2015, when we saw a sharp drop, especially compared to the breakthrough year (Fig. 1).
According to the TOP-Marketing agency; Regarding the supply of boilers, based on the results of nine months of 2016, we see a decrease of 15% compared to 2015. This suggests that the current decline in sales is protracted and can be considered as a trend, which is significantly different from the situation in 2009. To understand the reasons for what is happening, let’s consider the factors that have a key impact on the gas equipment market.
First of all, this is construction. Until mid-2014, this industry was on the rise. For example, in 2014, 84.2 million m2 of housing were put into operation, which amounted to 118.2% by 2013. In 2015, 83.8 million m2 were already commissioned, which is only 99.5%, and for individual developers - only 94.6 % by 2014. According to the forecasts of specialists from the Ministry of Construction and Housing and Communal Services of the Russian Federation, in 2016 only 76 million m2 of housing will be put into operation in Russia.
Secondly, this is gasification of the regions. As a result of the implementation of the gasification program for the regions of the Russian Federation from 2005 to 2015, the average level of gasification in Russia increased from 53.3 to 66.2%, including in cities from 60 to 70.4%, in rural areas- from 34.8 to 56.1%.
In the near future, this growth factor should not be overestimated, since PJSC Gazprom in 2016 selectively “cut” the volume of investments, taking into account the fulfillment of the obligations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Many experts associate the prospects for the gas boiler market in Russia with the program announced at the state level to transfer from central heating to individual heating. But, as practice has shown, bringing to life the plans of the country’s leadership to introduce energy-efficient technologies turned out to be an activity associated with significant difficulties. Most investors are concerned not with how to launch new projects, but with how to complete existing ones with minimal losses.
This happens for a number of reasons, including high inflation, low solvency of the population, unstable economic situation, and gaps in the legislative framework.
In my opinion, the market for replacing obsolete equipment will develop most actively in the near future. Of course, with a decrease in income and loss of savings, many consumers will try to prolong the operation of their boilers as much as possible through repairs, but the cost of spare parts and services will not allow them to do this for a relatively long time.
How to estimate the size of the replacement market? The simplest method is based on the ratio of the average service life of the boiler and sales history. Taking into account the quality of products, installation and operating conditions, the service life of each individual unit may be above or below the average. According to experts, a wall-mounted gas boiler in a household is used on average for approximately 8-10 years, a floor-standing cast iron boiler - 20 years, a floor-standing steel boiler (made in post-Soviet times) - up to 10 years. Sales of floor-standing gas boilers are not developing as dynamically as wall-mounted ones. Taking into account sales in 2006 (620 thousand units) and 2015 (480 thousand units), it can be argued that almost all floor-standing boilers are purchased instead of old ones. Most often, floor-standing boilers are part of gravity heating systems, so when replacing a floor-standing boiler with a wall-mounted one, it is necessary to change the entire system.
Sales of wall-mounted gas boilers in 2005 amounted to 124 thousand units. Considering that their average service life is 10 years, in 2015 the replacement market was 21%, in 2016 it is 35%. The dynamics of sales of wall-mounted gas boilers over the past 10 years demonstrates that the replacement market share will grow at an accelerated pace (Fig. 2). If there are no sharp positive changes, the share of the replacement segment in the market will be more than 50% in the next two years.
Besides economic factors, the gas equipment market is significantly influenced by changes taking place in society as a whole, radically changing people’s habits. All higher value for a person acquires information received on the Internet. The number of Internet users in Russia in 2015 increased by 9.2% to 80.5 million people, with 66.5 million people accessing the Internet every day. In 2017, the share of users over 18 years of age who use the Internet daily will increase to 70% (with an optimistic scenario - 81%), and by the end of 2020 - 76 % (with an optimistic scenario - 85%).
According to online commerce market research conducted in February 2016 by PayPal and Data Insight, 20% of purchases of goods for the home and garden are made in online stores (Fig. 3). This segment also includes domestic boilers. The Internet is not only a powerful sales channel, but also the main promotion tool. Even those who still prefer to purchase goods offline first receive information about them on the Internet - 23% of those who bought goods in a store made their choice in advance, having gained knowledge on forums, in social networks, on manufacturers’ websites, by watching videos, etc.
Also, one of the significant trends should be the increase in consumer independence when choosing a gas boiler. This is especially significant in the case of equipment replacement, when there is no need to change the system and contact designers, but you just need to choose a modern boiler and chimney complete. As a study based on focus groups conducted in 2013 by Vailant Group Rus LLC together with Emerald Advertising showed, homeowners who already use gas boilers are distrustful of installers and plan to make their own choice when replacing equipment. Thanks to the informatization of society, consumers are increasingly collecting information on the Internet and buying a boiler themselves, only then contacting an installation specialist.
A decrease in household incomes leads to a shift of the market to the “economy” segment, which in turn is the reason for the emergence of several trends. Firstly, the supply chain of products from manufacturer to consumer is shortened. The difference between the cost of the boiler and the competitive retail price is often not large enough to cover the costs and provide a margin for each participant. As a result, the boundaries of sales geography are becoming more and more arbitrary for many players.
Secondly, as a result of fierce competition and market compaction, players are forced to sacrifice profits, which are already declining from year to year. It happens that the seller does not earn anything from the sale of the boiler, compensating for lost profits through accessories.
Thirdly, manufacturers are replenishing their product lines with budget models, the price of which is 15-20 % lower than those that the companies released to the market before. Over the past two years, most European manufacturers have introduced new budget boiler models to the market.
To summarize, I would still like to dwell on the fact that after any sharp decline most often followed by a rise. The situation in the country is difficult, but at the end of 2016 international agency Standard & Poor’s has raised its forecast for Russia’s sovereign ratings to “stable”—according to the agency, GDP growth could be more than 1.5% in the next two years. Therefore, it is not worth saying that the gas equipment sales market will stagnate for a long time. There are growth drivers in our segment - firstly, the replacement market, and secondly, the transfer of the population from central heating to individual heating. Among the positive trends, I would highlight “digitalization”, which allows you to quickly convey information about products to the consumer, giving him the opportunity to make an informed choice. Competition will intensify, but it is precisely this that will spur players to optimize business processes and reduce costs, and develop new approaches to sales and promotion. We live and work in difficult, but very interesting times, which open up enormous prospects for creativity, courage and determination.
What is happening on the Russian heating equipment market, and what awaits it in the near future? Of course, his condition, first of all, will be determined by the general economic situation in the country, which, however, is true for any industry.
Gas heating boilers
According to the report “Analysis of the market for gas heating boilers in Russia” prepared by BusinesStat, after 2014, when the natural sales volume of household heating boilers in Russia reached its maximum - 1,027 thousand units, the demand for them began to decline: during the crisis of the next two Over the years, many businesses and homeowners have chosen to delay purchasing. According to BusinesStat forecasts, the decline in sales will continue in 2017 - to 735 thousand units. This will be caused by a continuing decline in household incomes, a slowdown in housing construction and the suspension of the implementation of a number of projects. In 2018, BusinesStat predicts the beginning of sales growth - up to 859 thousand units in 2020.
Gas boilers dominate the Russian market, which is explained by relatively low gas prices. According to Yuri Salazkin, General Director of BDR Termiya Rus LLC (brands and De Dietrich), in at the moment The best sellers are standard domestic atmospheric boilers with a power of 24 kW with a closed combustion chamber. Unlike EU countries, where condensing technologies occupy a significant market share, traditional heating technology predominates in Russia. Although these technologies are present in Russia, they are not as popular as in Europe, where energy efficiency improvements are actively stimulated at the legislative level, including through the provision of subsidies.
However, the constant increase in gas tariffs leads to the fact that the Russian market is moving towards more energy-efficient heating equipment. Thus, the company is launching a new brand of condensing boilers on the Russian market - ELCO. The first consumers will see is the Thision L Eco model, which the manufacturer positions as “the pinnacle of engineering”, and during 2017 the lines of improved floor-standing boilers R600 and R3400 (left) will also appear. These boilers, designed for use in autonomous heating systems and direct DHW heating, are lightweight and compact, with low noise and emissions.
Also among the latest innovations in the gas boiler segment is the new Ariston Alteas X line with intelligent system Ariston Net remote control. With its help, you can control the boiler and monitor its status via the Internet from any smartphone or PC, which can significantly reduce heating costs. Imagine: when you go on vacation, you lower the temperature in the apartment to a minimum, and a few hours before your return, straight from the airport, you set a comfortable mode. The application allows you to independently set the temperature of different zones and automatically maintain it taking into account weather conditions.
Alternative to gas
In places where there is no mainline natural gas, electric and solid fuel boilers are relevant. One of the interesting innovations in this segment is the unique Gilles boiler, powered by industrial waste, from the company. It is intended for industrial sites and farms where there is production waste that can be usefully disposed of - sawdust, sunflower seed husks, grains, wet wood chips, etc. There has been no such equipment on the Russian market until now.
Perhaps other advanced technologies will come to the Russian market. Hartmut Wesenberg, general manager LENNOX company, one of the world's leading manufacturers of heating equipment, in an interview with Expert magazine said that his company proposes to consider the possibility of using air heating systems in Russia, in particular in Siberia. These technologies, which have already become widespread in the world, but are still almost not used in our country, have a number of advantages over traditional water (boiler) heating: safety associated with the absence of coolant liquid, high speed heating the room and efficiency - the cost of its operation is 20-30% lower, and the efficiency is almost twice as high as compared to traditional systems. Well, and importantly, these systems are affordable.
Heating radiators
The most noticeable trend of last year was a significant decrease in the volume of imports of aluminum and bimetallic heating radiators to Russia. This is due to three main factors:
Weakening of the ruble;
Strengthening control by the Federal Customs Service, which practically stopped the import of low-quality heating devices (mainly from China);
The active work of the Association of Heating Radiator Manufacturers "APRO", which is fighting for the introduction of mandatory certification of heating devices.
These three factors have had positive influence for development Russian production heating radiators. According to Sergei Shatirov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, according to preliminary data, the share of Russian products on the market increased from 22-24% in 2015 to 34% in 2016. Obviously, the trend of increasing the share of Russian manufacturers in the heating radiator sector will continue in 2017 - there are all the prerequisites for this. Chairman of the Board of Directors of TPH Rusklimat Mikhail Timoshenko made the following forecast for 2017: “Judging by the announced new projects, the potential of Russian manufacturers of aluminum and bimetallic radiators is 20-25 million sections in terms of production volumes and 45-50% in terms of share in domestic Russian consumption "
This will be facilitated by investment projects Western European companies. Thus, the Italian representative of the International Association of Aluminum Radiator Manufacturers AIRAL announced the start of construction of new production facilities in Russia, despite European sanctions against Russia.
During parliamentary hearings of the Economic Policy Committee on import substitution in the heating system production industry, held in the Federation Council in early December 2016, a proposal was put forward to provide domestic manufacturers of heating devices with a 15 percent price advantage when participating in state and municipal procurement. This, of course, will also help increase the share of domestic manufacturers in the Russian heating equipment market.
